Tag Archives: Hot Topics

Using the stock market and unemployment as an easy and timely coincident recession indicator  – by New Deal democrat My fellow forecaster Bob Dieli has a measure he calls “DeltaDelta,” basically an average of the YoY% change in the stock market and the unemployment rate (which hopefully he won’t mind me mentioning here). It called to mind that occasionally in the past I have noted that a YoY decline in stock prices is a yellow flag for a...

A few years back, my chairman was a big enthusiast of NFTs (nonfungible tokens). In one conversation I recall, I pointed to a picture of the founding chair of the department and suggested he could digitize it and sell it to alumni as an NFT. He said he thought that was a good idea. When I laughed, he said “I’m not joking.” I replied: “That’s what I’m afraid of.”NFTs have always been an example of The Greater Fool Theory of investing, which holds that...

Timothy Snyder is the Richard C. Levin Professor of History at Yale University, a permanent fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna and an expert on Russian and Eastern European history. Yesterday, he narrated an essay on his subscription-only Substack site “Thinking about . . . “ on the occasion of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to the US and expression of gratitude for UN support. Snyder believes that we should be thanking Ukranians....

The long awaited downturn in multi-family construction may finally have happened  – by New Deal democrat With the relative fading of manufacturing in importance to the US economy, the leading construction sector has assumed even greater importance. And the most important data about construction are the leading, and long leading, data about residential housing construction. To give a little additional framework, typically the first data to...

This is Part 1 of a three-part story of how politics and delays backed by commercial interests and business sponsor groups delayed and eventually killed a bill meant to aid Ohio citizens. Kind of a forerunner to what may happen if Congress ever promotes a bill for healthcare-for-all. I will post the other two parts over the next two days, We sought a cause of death for HB 135. We found it … and something far bigger, WSYX, Darrel Rowland Part 1...

Unionize America sea to shining sea — do away with the biggest threat to democracy — with one easy federal labor law stroke. On Today’s Page (ontodayspage.blogspot.com), Denis Drew. Denis Drew has a commentary unions and federal Labor Law. Conjuring up a potential labor market where all businesses are family owned and family operated. Where no outside labor is hired and prices of goods and services are set at the highest amount families...

General Disclaimer: I don’t know what I am writing about. I am an economist not an electical engineer. This should go without saying, but just in case, remember that I don’t know what I am typing about. Radar is used to determine where airplanes are. One use is air traffic control for civil aviation — the airplanes cooperate. Another is military — hostile aircraft do not cooperate. First in civil aviation, the system is far removed from...

The 2024 presidential election will be between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Of that we can be certain. We can also be certain that the vote will be very close, and there are geopolitical players who will put their thumbs on the scale. “The Saudi Kingdom’s de facto rule Mohammad bin Salman’s coziness with the Trump family is notorious. Meanwhile, if Trump defeats Biden next year that would allow Vladimir Putin to escape the most monumental mistake of...

Simple commentary. Just started to receive information on increases. Gasoline is a no brainer. We drive a fuel efficient vehicle and do five over as opposed to what others do. It is interesting to hear the complaints. Thirty-gallon gasoline tank plus fast driving and you are getting into some serious money. You can only tell them if they will listen. Most will not and get belligerent. Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to extend their voluntary...

Weekly Indicators for September 11 – 15 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The only significant change in any metric is that manufacturing, as measured by the average of the new orders sub-indexes of the regional Feds’ monthly reports is on the very cusp of improving from negative to neutral, due to a big improvement in the New York region. That improvement probably reflects the...