Tag Archives: Hot Topics

In August 2020, I got my first jab of the Moderna COVID vaccine as part of their Phase III trial. One month later, I got the booster. 12 hrs after that, I had the classic symptoms–headache, fever, muscle and joint pain–indicating that I was in the vaccine arm of the trial and not the control. I went on to get a blood draw and have myself tested to confirm the inference. Since then, I’ve had three additional jabs, most recently about three weeks ago....

Despite a few soft spots, consumer income and spending continued to power ahead in October  – by New Deal democrat The monthly personal income and spending report is along with the jobs report, one of the two most important coincident metrics for the entire economy, because it is a fairly comprehensive look at the consumer sector. In October both nominal and real personal income and spending increased 0.2%. Since the beginning of the...

Despite the continued elevation of continued claims, initial claims signal continued expansion  – by New Deal democrat I’ll comment on personal income and spending later this morning, but let’s start out with our weekly update on jobless claims. Initial claims rose 7,000 to 218,000, while the 4 week average declined -500 to 220,000. With a one week delay, continuing claims rose 86,000 to 1.927 million, a nearly 2 year high: On the more...

Forecasting a further upturn in the unemployment rate: what works?  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I read a post over at Seeking Alpha in which the author confidently predicted a recession in Q1 next year, based exclusively on the NAHB builder sentiment index. Here’s his accompanying graph, comparing builder sentiment with the unemployment rate 17 months later: In case you didn’t already figure it out, the graph forecasts a 7%...

Driven by frozen inventory, repeat home prices continue to increase, but downward pressure on shelter inflation remains  – by New Deal democrat Our last piece of important housing information for the month was released this morning; namely repeat home sale prices as measured by the FHFA and Case Shiller. The former increased by 0.6%, and the latter by 0.3%, continuing their increases since the beginning of this year: On a YoY basis, the...

I have followed Steve Hutkins and retired Postmaster Mark Jamison for years now. Both Mark and I have had conversations both on and off Angry Bear. It appears we are nearing the end of the reconstruct of the USPS. Whether it works as well shy 50,000 employees with the expectation civilians on their own can manage without the experience of their help, service, and delivery remains to be seen. Long read and a worthy read with links! Delivering for...

Two year low in new home prices and turndown in sales show renewed pressure caused by increased mortgage rates  – by New Deal democrat Once again, this morning’s report on new single family home sales shows that the compete bifurcation of the new vs. existing home markets continues. Unlike existing homeowners, many of whom are shackled in place by 3% mortgages, new home builders can offer price incentives and downsize floor plans to increase...

Comparing energy efficiency of boiling water: household appliances Michael D. Eissenberg, BSME, PE, Leed AP*, and Joel C. Eissenberg, Ph.D.* *co-corresponding authors Abstract Kitchen appliances use various mechanisms to heat, with differences in energy sources and geometry. The goal of this study was to compare energy efficiency across common household appliances. To facilitate comparison, 1 L of water was used as the heating substrate...

Why the Index of Leading Indicators failed  – by New Deal democrat I have a post by the above title up at Seeking Alpha. The Index of Leading Indicators has persistently declined for 22 months, and is off by a level that in the past has been consistent with already ongoing, deep recessions. And yet the economy has continued to improve. Clearly there has been a misfire. The above article explains in more detail why I believe this has...

Doing my usual internet walkabout and looking for things which may be interesting to present at AB. Rental Housing costs and Mortgage costs are important in trying to find reasonable housing. A reader does not have to travel far to pick up on this topic. Angry Bear’s features New Deal democrat, who also covers similar topics every day. You can also read Bill McBride (Calculated Risk) comments on similar topics. At one time, Bill wrote at Angry Bear...