Tag Archives: Hot Topics

ISM manufacturing index remains in contraction, and the trend in vehicle sales may have turned down as well by New Deal democrat The ISM manufacturing index, where any value below 50 indicates contraction, once again came in negative for both the total index, at 47.4, and the more leading new orders subindex, at 47.1. Both have been indicating contraction for more than a year: Which begs the question. Because, despite a nearly flawless 75...

New Year, same old labor market deceleration  – by New Deal democrat This morning’s JOLTS report for November continued the same trend of labor market deceleration that we have seen since the blazing hot boom of 2021. Job openings declined -62,000 to 8.790 million, the lowest level since March 2021. Actual hires fell sharply, by -363,000 to 5.465 million, the lowest since the pandemic lockdown month of April 2020. Quits declined by -157,000...

Introduction: Nice piece on how Americans are so tied to their gasoline powered cars, pickup trucks, etc. and the impact on cities and environment. What is key to this article and the author’s thought is this statement: “The obvious solution … lies only in a radical revision of our conception of what a city street is for.”  Where I live, the smaller city is 30 minutes away at 65 MPH (if they are doing such). If you drive faster, maybe you...

Construction spending continued to increase in November  – by New Deal democrat I’m feeling a little under the weather today, so I am going to keep this brief. Total construction spending rose 0.4% in November, while residential construction rose 1.1%: Keep in mind that these are nominal numbers, affected by the cost of construction materials. Typically residential construction moves in tandem with building units under construction....

January 1, 2024, Letters from an American, Prof. Heather Cox-Richardson On January 1, 1863, President Abraham Lincoln signed his name to the Emancipation Proclamation. He said . . . “I never in my life felt more certain that I was doing right, than I do in signing this paper. If my name goes into history, it will be for this act, and my whole soul is in it.” The Emancipation Proclamation provided that as of January 1, “all persons held as...

The economic graph of the year for 2023  – by New Deal democrat I’ll put up the final Coronavirus update of the year later today, but before we leave 2023, let me put up the graph that I think explains about 90% of the economic data this past year. And here it is: This was a graph I created, and included in a piece called “Why the Index of Leading Indicators failed” over at Seeking Alpha. Here’s the explanation: the situation just...

As a career research scientist, I’ve made many predictions in my time. It was fun and rewarding to design controlled experiments to test my predictions. And the wonderful thing about science is that, if your prediction is wrong, you learn something new. I don’t make many predictions myself these days. But I’m interested in the predictions of others. Not because I necessarily trust them. But when someone shows their work, you can weigh their judgment...

Any predictions for the upcoming year? Economy, Election, Health, etc. Those are the main three categories I can think of at this point. Maybe you have others you can bring up? Tags: New Years 2024

I got my BA from the University of Tennessee-Knoxville in 1977. At the time, the university charged no tuition, but “fees” were about $165/quarter for a full load. Of course, as a state university, it was heavily subsidized by state tax dollars. Quite a feat for a state that has no income tax.The business model for higher education has been changing for a while. Small private colleges are closing or merging because of declining enrollment. State...

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. 2023 has been a year of improvement, and that improvements continued in the final installment, as ever so slowly more and more indicators flip neutral or positive. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment, and reward me a little bit for my efforts throughout the year. Next week, as we begin a new year, I anticipate adding a...