Tag Archives: Hot Topics

Initial claims continue to forecast expansion; further slight deceleration in employment, unemployment, and wages most likely tomorrow  – by New Deal democrat This morning we had our last look at initial jobless claims before tomorrow’s November jobs report. On a weekly basis, claims rose 1,000 to 221,000. The four week average rose 500 to 220,750. With a one week delay, continuing cliams declined 64,000 from last week’s 2 year high to 1.861...

What is interesting about NDd’s latest is his identifying manufacturing playing “a much smaller role in the total US economy now than it used to in the decades after WW2.” He identifies another factor occurring before the start of a recession. It has become increasingly necessary for spending on services to falter as well. Real consumer spending forecasts continuing jobs deceleration  – by New Deal democrat As I’ve written many times over...

“casts record-setting vote in Senate.” Vice President Harris on Tuesday cast her 32nd tiebreaking vote to confirm Loren L. AliKhan to be a U.S. district judge for the District of Columbia — making history with the most deciding votes in the chamber by a vice president. Open Thread November 28 2023 Housing Buy or Rent? Angry Bear Tags: Open Thread December 6 2023...

October JOLTS report: yet one more month in the ongoing decelerating trend  – by New Deal democrat  All of the major metrics in this month’s JOLTS report for October continued to show deceleration. Here are openings (blue), hires (red), and quits (gold), all normed to 100 just before the pandemic: As you can see, at 98.1 and 103.9 respectively, both hires and quits are virtually identical to where they were before the pandemic. Meanwhile...

On a YoY basis manufacturing is the star of the show. But note from the historical graph that residential construction previously has turned down first, with manufacturing and other non-residential construction lagging (likely because of long lead times and the extended duration of completing projects). A big increase holds up construction spending in October; and construction spending is holding up the economy  – by New Deal democrat...

In the film, “The Princess Bride,” Wally Shawn repeatedly exclaims “inconceivable.” Finally, Mandy Patinkin (as Inigo Montoya) replies: “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”Whenever GOP politicians announce their belief that the age for Social Security and Medicare Benefits should be raised, the mainstream media report this as “reform.” I saw this most recently in a CNN headline “Nikki Haley wants to reform...

I’ve always done basic research. I’ve never done any research specifically aimed at a clinical goal. I’ve never patented anything I’ve done. None of that motivated my curiosity. I’ve been a medical school professor for over 36 years and was Principal Investigator on three NIH grants and one from the American Cancer Society, and I never once gave a thought to how my findings would cure disease.There are two types of people in the world: game people...

The Boston Globe has an article announcing the imminent approval of Casgevy, a CRISPR-based treatment for sickle cell disease that has already been approved in Britain.It is hard to overstate how transformative CRISPR has been for genetics research, and how promising it is for gene therapy. Sickle cell disease was always the low-hanging fruit, but there are plenty of other conditions that are being targeted for CRISPR therapy.To explain how Casgevy...

Weekly Indicators for November 27 – December 1 at Seeking Alpha; plus a comment on the ISM manufacturing report  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The coincident data continues quite strong, and the long leading indicators are increasingly “less bad,” which is something that happens when recessions are beginning to ebb. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to...

This was posted at 8:03 AM at the Bonddad Blog Thursday. I see other venues having similar reports up also. I am sometimes late in posting NDd’s economic commentaries. Ex-housing, PCE inflation, like CPI inflation, is under the Fed’s 2% target  – by New Deal democrat Note: I may not be around for the ISM manufacturing or construction spending reports this morning. If so, I’ll comment later (maybe over the weekend) about them. What I’ll be...