Tag Archives: Hot Topics

Why the Index of Leading Indicators failed  – by New Deal democrat I have a post by the above title up at Seeking Alpha. The Index of Leading Indicators has persistently declined for 22 months, and is off by a level that in the past has been consistent with already ongoing, deep recessions. And yet the economy has continued to improve. Clearly there has been a misfire. The above article explains in more detail why I believe this has...

Doing my usual internet walkabout and looking for things which may be interesting to present at AB. Rental Housing costs and Mortgage costs are important in trying to find reasonable housing. A reader does not have to travel far to pick up on this topic. Angry Bear’s features New Deal democrat, who also covers similar topics every day. You can also read Bill McBride (Calculated Risk) comments on similar topics. At one time, Bill wrote at Angry Bear...

As suggested by New Deal democrat, the nation is experiencing an expansion of the economy which seems less likely to end in a recession. “There has been some commentary that continuing claims mean a recession is imminent or may even be underway. I am discounting that because initial claims have always signaled first, and also because continuing claims have been in the range of 25%-30% higher YoY for the last 6 months without worsening. Turning...

Initial jobless claims confirm benign employment conditions  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined -14,000 to 209,000 last week, and the four week moving average declined -750 to 220,000. With the usual one week lag, continuing claims declined -22,000 to 1.840 million: On a YoY basis, both weekly claims and their four week average were up only 4.6%. Continuing claims, which have been much more elevated YoY, were up 24.0%:...

Existing homeowners with 3% mortgages remain frozen in place, as sales fall to a new 28 year low  – by New Deal democrat October marked yet another month in the fully bifurcated housing market, in which most existing homeowners are frozen in place by their 3% mortgages, and buyers have turned to new homes (and in particular condos and apartments) instead. Existing home sales fell yet again, by 16,000 annualized, to 3.79 million, 45% down...

With high, flat fronts are 45% more likely to kill. Carbon Upfront, Lloyd Alter.  You might think it’s time I stuck to upfront carbon, but new research from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) looks specifically at how dangerous these are for pedestrians. The numbers are shocking, with pickups and SUVs like this 45% more likely to kill. Open Thread November 18 2023 – Bidenomics, Angry Bear....

Why has residential building construction remained so strong, despite the recessionary-level decline in permits and starts?  – by New Deal democrat As an initial note, there is no economic news today. For obvious reasons there won’t be on Thursday or Friday either. So, don’t be surprised if I take a couple of days off as well. In the meantime, I’ve been continuing to ponder why housing under construction remains close to its all-time, 50+...

It is hard to overstate the transformational public health benefits of anti-hypertensives and statins for blood pressure and serum cholesterol control. For a modest cost, these drugs not only mitigate human suffering but save billions, if not trillions, of dollars by avoiding costly surgical interventions.The repurposing of anti-diabetic drugs like semaglutide and tirzepatide for weight loss in obese populations promises to be similarly...

Weekly Indicators for November 13 – 17 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. After a brief pause, the coincident indicators have continued to improve. There are now very few that are not positive. The spotlight therefore remains on the short leading indicators, as to which manufacturing has not declined enough to tip the economy into recession, and construction has not declined...

Housing construction continues to support subdued expansion  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote of how manufacturing has faded somewhat as a leading indicator, at least in the sense that it takes a steeper downturn than it used to in order to forecast a wider downturn in the economy. Which makes the other big goods-producing sector, construction, even more important. And residential housing is the single most component of that.  And...