Tag Archives: Hot Topics

On this day, 18 October 2023, a group representing, at best, 10 percent of House Republicans, 5 percent of the total House, and 5 percent of the total populace came too close to getting Jim Jordan selected Speaker of the House. We came this close to a coup. Albeit partial, a coup. If they had been successful, as their first order of business, they would set about expunging Trump’s impeachments. ...

A big jump in motor vehicle sales highlights a good September for retail sales  – by New Deal democrat  As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite metrics because it tells us so much about the consumer and, indirectly, the labor market and the total economy. Nominally, retail sales rose 0.7% in September, and August’s already good 0.6% was revised upward as well. Since consumer inflation rose 0.4%, real retail sales rose 0.3% – still a...

The “bearish steepening” and the death of refinancing  – by New Deal democrat If you’ve paid much attention to the financial press in recent days, you have probably read stories that the yield curve – the line that traces the difference in rates in different length bond maturities – has moved towards un-inverting. That is, the situation whereby short term rates are higher than long term rates is moving in the direction of reversing towards a...

For the past few days I have been wondering if Netanyahu has a plan for responding to the Hamas terror killings, or if he’s just temporizing.  More and more, it seems like he is just skating in front of the breaking ice.  If this is right, it’s one more misdeed for which he and his cronies need to be held accountable. Any competent military would have a carefully worked out contingency plan for all-out war against Hamas.  That plan would take into...

Roosevelt Institute’s Economist Mike Konczal calls this a remarkable recovery. The increase in the number of people working has helped tamp down inflation and has shown the importance of aiming for full employment. Myself? I do not think this was planned by any authority, including the Fed. One belief I do have is there being a contrived supply chain shortage by business leading to increasing need for Labor. I do not recall a positive economic...

Weekly Indicators for October 9 – 13 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The recent improvement in the short leading indicators has made its way through to the coincident indicators. But, given the importance of gas prices, whether the turmoil in the Middle East spreads out to affect oil producing countries is a major issue. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the...

Real average wages decline, while real aggregate payroll gains remain below peak  – by New Deal democrat With the report on September inflation yesterday, we can update two measures of how well average American workers are doing: real average wages and real aggregate payrolls. Nominally wages increased 0.2% for the month. With consumer prices up 0.4%, real wages declined -0.2%: Real wages had been in an increasing trend since gas prices...

It appears that one important source of the appalling success of the Hamas terrorist invasion of Israel was their use of Drones. Israel relied on a medium tech remote sensing and viewing system with video cameras and remote-controlled machine guns connected to controllers through a cell-phone like system. Hamas used drones to knock out the cameras, machine guns, and, especially, the cell-towers. This means they could enter Israel without being...

Except for fictitious shelter and vehicle repairs, September inflation was moderate  – by New Deal democrat With the main exception of fictitious shelter, consumer inflation in September remained relatively subdued, but as anticipated has stopped decelerating. First I’ll look at the headlines, then the problem children. Total inflation (blue in the graph below) rose 0.4% for the month, but only 0.3% less food and energy (red). Less shelter...

September producer prices confirm economic tailwind has ended  – by New Deal democrat My strong suspicion has been that the tailwind of declining commodity prices, typified by the big decline in gas prices in late 2022 is what allowed the US economy to grow so well so far this year, blunting the effects of major Fed interest rate hikes. For the last several months, my focus has been whether that decline is over. This morning’s producer price...