Tag Archives: Hot Topics

Who is willing to die for diesel ? There is an extreme crisis in the Gaza strip and at the Rafah crossing from the Gaza strip to Egypt. *Finally* Israel is allowing food, bottled water, and medical supplies to enter the Gaza strip. However, they refuse to allow fuel in (claiming they are worried that Hamas will seize it). This is a crisis as Hospitals are running on backup generators and about to run out of fuel. Yesterday The UN Relief and Works...

Weekly Indicators for October 16 – 20 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Obviously, the big story of the week was the surge in interest rates. The 10 year Treasury yield closed above 5% for the first time since 2007, and mortgage rates went above 8% for the first time since 2000! Hard to see how the economy can withstand that for very long (if it persists!). But meanwhile the...

Pulling another Lloyd Alter Carbon Upfront commentary. Been reading Lloyd for a number of years and going back to Slate’s The Fray. Those years could be measured in decades now. I like the older building and worked on some of them in Chicago. The old Union Carbon and Carbide bldg. comes to mind. It became a Hard Rock venture. Later it was taken over becoming a St. Jane hotel. A Burnham Brothers-design Art Deco build by a corporation around...

Why the index of leading indicators failed: examining the once in a lifetime post-pandemic tailwind  – by New Deal democrat Carl Quintanilla observed the one year anniversary of the following two days ago: I’ve written previously about what confounded that forecast. But let me highlight those issues again. 1. A 40% drop in gas prices, and a generalized 10% drop in commodity prices can do wonders for both producers and consumers. Here’s...

The collapse of the existing home market continues in September  – by New Deal democrat September was yet another month in the ongoing collapse of existing home sales. To wit, sales declined another -8,000 on an annualized basis to 3.960 million. This is the lowest number since August 2010. And aside from that one singular month, it is the lowest since 1995! [Note that this is similar to the collapse in purchase mortgage applications, also at...

I first became a history autodidact in my 20s, trying to understand the difference between my worldview and those of my parents and in-laws. >100 histories and biographies later, I have a great appreciation of just how awful the 20th century was. In my lifetime, I remember political assassinations, race riots, the Vietnam war, recessions, 9/11, the anthrax scare and the US invasion and military occupation of Iraq. Not to mention COVID-19, which is...

This is a portion (1 of 6 observations) of a much longer Employer Healthcare Benefits article which would have been impossible to feature in entirety at AB. If I did so, much of it would probably go unread. I was interested in how much concern employees have about company healthcare insurance costs. In particular, I was looking at what employees thought about their plans and its affordability as show in chart 6. Costs, Inflation and Affordability...

Initial claims on the cusp of turning lower YoY  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims dropped below 200,000 last week for the first time since January, and not too far from the 50+ year low of 182,000 set in September one year ago. Specifically, they declined -13,000 to 198,000. The four-week average declined -1,000 to 205,750, the lowest since February. Contrarily, with the usual one-week lag, continuing claims rose 29,000 to 1.734...

The last holdout in housing data has turned; ‘recession watch’ for next 12 months remains  – by New Deal democrat Last month I wrote that: “the biggest news was what happened with units under construction. The total declined slightly, as did single family units. But most significantly, for the first time since February 2021, multi-family units under construction also declined. “Why is this so important? Because, as this long term...

Like retail sales, motor vehicles lead the way in industrial production  – by New Deal democrat As with retail sales earlier this morning, motor vehicle production is playing an outsized role in expansion this year. Industrial production as a whole rose 0.3% in September. But August was revised down by -0.2%, so on net it increased only 0.1%. Similarly, manufacturing production rose 0.4%, but with a -0.3% revision to August, was also only up...