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Tag Archives: Uncategorized

Commercial real estate, Restaurant index

U.S. Commercial Property Prices Drop for First Time in Six Years By Kara WetzelMarch 7 (Bloomberg)Values fell 0.3% in January from prior month, Moody’s says.Decline is `significant milestone’ showing shift in sentimentU.S. commercial real estate prices dropped in January for the first time since 2010, a sign of weakening demand by investors after a six-year rally that pushed values to records.The Moody/RCA Commercial Property Price Index slipped 0.3 percent from December, Moody’s Investors...

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NFIB index, Redbook retail sales

Tough to give this a positive spin… And note the downward slope of the chart, as weakness continues to spread from oil capex to the rest of the economy: NFIB Small Business Optimism IndexHighlightsThe small business optimism index slipped 1 point in February to 92.9, a 2-year low that reflects incremental declines across six of 10 components. The report’s two employment components both inched 1 point lower with plans to increase employment still at a positive reading of 10 and job openings...

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Consumer Credit, Lumber prices, Inventories

Another weak number, and the series was revised as well. And for GDP to grow the same as last year, all the ‘pieces’ have to grow the same, and this one isn’t keeping up: Consumer CreditHighlightsBreaks in the consumer credit series, due to changes in source data or methodology, are not uncommon, leading to sudden swings such as in mid-2011. Such a break is responsible for a big revision to December, now at a revised increase of $6.4 billion from an initial $21.3 billion. The revision is...

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Threat of a synchronised downturn & G20 Finance Ministers’ complacency

OECD secretary general Jose Angel Gurria, US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen and British chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne chat during a G20 photocall. Photograph: Rolex Dela Pena/AFP/Getty Images “For the proposition that supply creates its own demand, I shallsubstitute the proposition that expenditure  creates  its  own income”   JM Keynes Collected Writings, Volume  XXIX,  p.  81 G20 Finance Ministers met in Huangzhou, China recently and refused appeals from both the IMF and...

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Oil price, Radio interview, Fed Atlanta, Canada

Some commentary on the latest Saudi price changes: Saudi raises crude price to Europe, Asia, cuts it for US Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, Wednesday raised the April prices of its oil to Asia and Europe but cut it slightly for shipments to the United States. My quick WRKO radio interview Down some more, as previously discussed:He’s going the right way, but it’s relatively small and he’s unfortunately still out of paradigm which puts it all at risk of ‘losing the debate’...

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Factory orders, ISM non manufacturing, Consumer comfort, PMI services index

As per the charts, a big dip last month was followed but a partial recover this month, but overall it’s going nowhere: Factory Orders Employment dropped from 52.1 to 49.7- not good: ISM Non-Mfg IndexHighlightsThe great bulk of the nation’s economy enjoyed a solid February based on ISM’s non-manufacturing report where the headline index held solidly over breakeven 50, at 53.4 vs January’s 53.5.New orders came in at 55.5, down 1 point from January but still very solid. And backlog orders...

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Saudi April pricing, Mtg purchase apps, ADP

Some up a bit, some down a bit, overall looks to me like downward price pressure continues:Down this week and still moving largely sideways: This is a forecast for Friday’s employment report. It was a little better than expected: ADP Employment ReportHighlightsFriday’s employment report may be on the strong side based on ADP’s private payroll count for February which is a stronger-than-expected 214,000. ADP isn’t always an accurate barometer of the government’s data but it has been the last...

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Vehicle sales

Whoops, less than expected, and as the chart shows the seasonally adjusted rate of sales continues to decelerate from the prior peak months as weakness that began with the collapse of oil capex continues to spread to the rest of the economy:From another source that spins flat to down sales as a positive for continued growth. Seems to me that if any of the ‘pieces’ grow at a lower rate than last year, some other ‘piece’ has to grow at a faster rate than it grew at last year to make up for it....

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Redbook retail sales, PMI manufacturing, ISM manufacturing, Construction spending, Draghi comment

PMI Manufacturing IndexHighlightsGrowth in Markit Economics’ manufacturing sample is slowing to a crawl, at 51.3 for final February which is, next only to February’s flash of 51.0, the second lowest reading since October 2012. January, at 52.4, was a good month for the manufacturing sector with industrial production up and durable orders up, but the early indications on February are uniformly negative.Production in this report slowed as did new orders where growth is at a 3-1/2 year low....

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