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from Asad Zaman We are used to thinking that there is progress in knowledge. As we gain experience, the collective wisdom of mankind increases. The story of economics in the twentieth century provides the most amazing example of the opposite: How precious knowledge of vital importance for the welfare of humanity was gained and then lost. Many studies show that a meaningful job is the most important determinant of life satisfaction, and among the thing most desired by the general...

On the CFR blog Brad Setser has an interesting post about Spain, based upon the Spanish national accounts.. Summary: it is going better but (the volumes of)  domestic demand and jobs are still 10% below the 2007 level. And despite a relatively favorable development of (net) exports domestic demand seems to explain about everything, when it comes to employment. I have three points to add. The difference between the development of GDP and the development of domestic demand is, when it...

Purchase applications backed off but have been moving higher for several months, though still very depressed:A nice move up but as per the chart it’s hovering around 0:Worse than expected, and continues at recession levels, and note the decline in autos:HighlightsA steep drop in vehicle production pulled industrial production lower in May, down 0.4 percent. Vehicle production had been leading this report but fell 4.2 percent in the month excluding which the headline loss...

from Mark Weisbrot I have argued for years, and in my last post on this blog, that a big part of the story we have seen in Europe over the past eight years is a result of social engineering. This has involved a major offensive by the European authorities, taking advantage of an economic crisis, to transform Europe into a different kind of society, with a smaller social safety net, lower median wages, and — whether intended or not — increasing inequality as a result. In recent...

Saudi output hasn’t materially changed. The previous strategy was to set the price low enough for output to increase. So seems the new oil minister has changed course is now setting price as high as he thinks he can set it without triggering development of higher priced oil.Let me suggest this GDP ‘forecast’ is about as high as it gets before substantially falling back, as it did last quarter. This is because it is an account of what’s happened in April and May based on...

The charts of all the components look just as bad.And note the collapse after oil capex collapsed:HighlightsThe small business optimism index rose 0.2 points in May to 93.8, slightly extending April’s 1 point bounce back from 2-year lows but remaining well below the 42-year average of 98. Four of the 10 components of the index showed gains in May, two were unchanged and four declined. Expectations that the economy will improve posted the largest gain, rising 5 points but...

The case for Britain to Remain within the EU is to my mind, largely a political case. The political forces pressing for a rupture with the Union are not on the whole progressive, although there are many sincere Leave campaigners on the Left of the spectrum. ‘Brexiters’ are mostly insular, nationalistic and sometimes racist, especially in relation to immigrants and refugees. With few exceptions the Brexit leaders are market fundamentalists, anxious to blame foreigners for the state of...

Registration for the event closes tomorrow at 23.59 “Proposals will be invited to lead, develop and administer a single Network Plus, with funding available of up to £4.6 million (100 per cent fEC) over 48 months, . . . “  Attendance at the event is not a requirement for submitting a proposal, but is strongly advised. Primary link: Understanding the Macroeconomy Network Plus   Background Longstanding criticisms of the economics profession, and particularly of the dominant paradigm in...

I was pleasantly surprised by this informed and moderate speech by Mario Draghi (though I do not agree with his suggestion that structural employment is 9,7%…). But then I read Billy Blog about the latest ridiculous nonsense by the European Commission (sanctioned by the ECB) and I was reminded that economic economic insanity lurks, well, not around the corner but has centre stage: “When policy becomes so distorted that nations with rampant deflation and elevated levels of unemployment...

from Dean Baker More than eight years after the start of the Great Recession, our labor market is far from recovering by most measures. At 5 percent, the current unemployment rate is not very different from its pre-recession level, but the main reason it is so low is that millions of people have given up looking for work and dropped out of the labor force. These people are no longer counted as being unemployed. And contrary to what is often claimed, this is not a story of retiring baby...