Tag Archives: US EConomics

PPI, without the lagging phantom of Owners Equivalent Rent, declines in August, decelerates YoY  – by New Deal democrat What a difference it makes that PPI does not have a concept like “owners equivalent rent!” Overall PPI declined by -0.1%, following a -0.4% reading in July, together the two lowest readings since the pandemic lockdown months: Core PPI increased by 0.5% (blue in the graph below), which while historically high, was the...

Housing: permits and average starts decline, while construction remains at peak The data on housing construction this month was mixed. While starts rose, their 3 month average, at 1.511 million annualized, was the lowest since September through November 2020. Meanwhile total and single family permits both declined, both to the lowest since June 2020: This year I’ve also been looking at the record number of housing units that had permits, but...

Previewing CPI No economic news today. Tomorrow the August CPI will be reported. Recall that in July there was no inflation whatsoever. In August last year prices increased 0.3%, so any number lower than that will lower YoY CPI from its July level of 8.5% (June’s 9.0% YoY inflation having been the peak). The big bugaboos for consumer inflation have been housing, vehicles, and gas. So let’s take a look at each. Yesterday, for the first time,...

An update on oil and gas prices  – by New Deal democrat After stabilizing in the $87-$94 range for a little over a month, oil prices have declined further in the past several days. As of this morning they were in the $82/barrel range. The YTD graph via CNBC below shows that they have now completely reversed the Ukraine invasion increase that began in February (perhaps linked to Ukraine’s counteroffensive of the past week?): Gas prices follow...

Another week of good news on jobless claims  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims had been in an almost relentless uptrend from the end of March through early August. Since then, they have completely reversed. This week initial claims declined another -6,000 to 222,000, and the 4 week average declined -7,500 to 233,000. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, increased another 36,000 to 1,473,000, a 5 month high: There was a...

The average age of the American farmer has been stuck at 57.5 since 2017 and hasn’t seemed to budged into 2021 despite an explosion of new farmer operators choosing to quit their pandemic day jobs and head for the fields to participate in small plot farming and local market vending. Generationally, the unfortunate circumstance with an aging farmer population and high land values equates to what Agricultural Economics Professor Dr. Shannon Ferrell of...

by Joseph Joyce China and the Debt Crisis Sri Lanka is not the first developing economy to default on its foreign debt, and certainly won’t be the last. The Economist has identified 53 countries as most vulnerable to a combination of “heavy debt burdens, slowing global growth and tightening financial conditions.” The response of China to what will be a rolling series of restructurings and write-downs will reveal much about its position in the...

If I was going to guess, and I do not have to do so, it appears the US is retooling to update capabilities. Maybe they will put forth a plan to minimize inventory too. The source of all this retooling? Probably using up the money made during the pandemic and also government funds invested in infrastructure. And maybe, they are creating minimal setups to handle a variety of product like we did for one supplier of hoods to Chrysler. Automotive still...

 Lawrence Mishel and Josh Bivens  at Economic Policy Institute take a look at why wages have been relatively flat compared to productivity gains in the US economy, inequality of compensation, and declining share of income between labor and capital. Broad strokes but helps with context and suggesting ideas for current government actions. Inequalities abound in the U.S. economy, and a central driver in recent decades is the widening gap...

On Labor Day 2022, how well is labor doing? This is Labor Day, so let’s take a look at a few metrics of how labor is doing. As an initial aside, occasionally I get asked why I write about expansions and recessions. An important reason is, pretty much by definition during recessions jobs and income decline. During expansions they, well, expand. So forecasting whether the period ahead will feature better or worse conditions for job-holding and...