Tag Archives: US EConomics

New housing construction appears to have bottomed; but expect further declines in construction employment ahead  – by New Deal democrat Pointing your attention to NDd’s calling out of the economic signs leading to job declines. ~~~~~~~~ For the past few months, I’ve noted that new home sales, which while very volatile frequently are the first metric to signal a change in trend, appeared to have bottomed by early last autumn. This...

And Costs. Angry Bear is an economics blog. Sometimes, I wonder as I take on many topics not including an economic cost. Gun Violence does have an economic cost to it which impacts our economy. We just have not talked about it. The average annual cost for overall gun violence in the United States is $1,698 for every resident in the country. In states with stronger gun laws, the economic toll of gun violence is less than half this amount. Whereas...

This You Tube clip is about 25 minutes long which is an awfully long time for blog-readers to sit still and listen to someone talk. Yes, yes I know. I am not the most exciting writer out here either. I am sure I have caused a yawn or two and perhaps put some to sleep. Numbers, manufacturing, and supply chain are not exciting topics. The “Pres” does not come down and congratulate you for opening lots up for the shop, getting parts for those lots, and...

Two “fundamental” indicators for the American middle/working class and the economy  – by New Deal democrat This week is a little light on data, except for housing permits and starts (Tuesday) and existing home sales (Thursday), so let me catch up on a few other indicators. In particular, two of my favorite indicators are based on “fundamentals.” Basically, how much the average American is earning, and how much they are spending. Needless to...

I used to think Minnesota was a pretty cool state. Spent some time in the boundary waters between Minnesota and Canada. Great experience for a 15 year old. After reading this, I find Minnesota to be just as backwards as Wisconsin is outside of Madison and Milwaukee. Great place to roam and bad politics. I know it is tough to get many to read beyond a couple of paragraphs. This post documents Kip Sullivan’s testimony to the Minnesota Health and...

Back before, municipal and state governments, pension funds, etc. mostly invested in financials of the manufacturing sort. Then, America was in the manufacturing business. An issuing manufacturer was contractually bound to hand over the return owed. The investors were entitled. If they didn’t get their entitle, it was, ‘”see you in court.” In 2023, in Biden v. Nebraska, six states are arguing that Biden’s proposed cancellation of certain student loan...

Weekly Indicators for April 10 -14 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My ‘Weekly Indicators’ post is up at Seeking Alpha. The slow drip-drip-drip of deceleration generally continues. Perhaps most significantly, YoY consumer spending as measured by Redbook sank to a new post-pandemic lockdown low of only +1.5%. But other coincident indicators in particular, like tax withholding, appear resilient. As usual, clicking over and reading...

Real manufacturing and trade sales probably rose to a new record high in February; may have declined in March  – by New Deal democrat Real manufacturing and trade sales is one of the 4 monthly coincident indicators most monitored by the NBER to determine whether the economy is in expansion or recession. Because the reporting of this series lags badly (by 2 months), I have developed several placeholders to estimate it on a more timely basis....

Positive revisions make for a good March industrial production report  – by New Deal democrat If retail sales for March were bad, industrial production (blue in the graph below) was at very least mixed to the upside. Total production increased +0.4%, and on top of that February was revised higher by +0.2%, and January was revised higher by +0.5%. The not so good news is that while manufacturing (red) was also revised higher by +0.5% for...

March real retail sales lay an egg, suggests downturn in nonfarm payrolls by the end of summer  – by New Deal democrat  After a quiet early part of the week, today we get a deluge of data: retail sales and industrial production for March, and total business sales for February. Because real total business sales are one of the 4 big coincident indicators tracked by the NBER, and because retail sales are about 1/3rd of the total, and industrial...