Tag Archives: US EConomics

Weekly Indicators for March 27 – 31 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat I keep forgetting to put up this link on Saturdays, but you know where to find it: my Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The good thing about high frequency indicators is you can see what is happening with trends much more quickly than with monthly releases. The bad thing is that the drip-drip-drip can take forever! Anyway, the fallout from SVB...

Real income in February rises slightly; real spending declines slightly; real total sales in January rose sharply, as expected  – by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this week, personal income and outlays is one of the two most important data releases at the current time, along with the monthly jobs report. That’s because these are the two sectors of the economy that have most prominently not rolled over, and are keeping us out of...

It has taken years for the Feds, CMS, MedPac, Congress to catch up with the thieving practice of these healthcare plans. They have mislead the people they sell these plans too with come-ons such as health club ss, etc. Then when it comes time for care, it is delayed or denied. This comes after the plans already have received funding. It is about time Congress did something other than bicker. NYT could have been tougher . . . Medicare Delays...

Dean is on a roll here with propositions for the nation as it ages. Thoughtfully, I called it initially a Quiver of Arrows in Support of the economy and in the end Social Security. He is answering a question of what do we need to do to prepare for an aging population and lower replacement rates. We may not need to do as much as we think. By the way this post is a follow up to Dale Coberly’s post; Social Security Trustees’ Report Is Out So Is...

Revisions to Q4 GDP made real final sales worse, a potential portent of near in time recession  – by New Deal democrat A month ago, following another blogger, I took a look at real final sales, and real final sales to domestic purchasers, in the GDP – which increased less than 0.5% and just above 0% in Q4, and showed that in the past 60 years, only in the deep slowdowns of 1966 and 1987 were the numbers that low without having been followed...

I think I missed this one by Michael Smith. I did not delete it out of my In-Box/ Even so it is interesting . . . Death to Farm Credit from Those on High, Farmer and Economist, Mike Smith I’m in between fall crop planting and have to focus so I am going to run this like the rancher on the clock. Farm Credit System History  In 1916 when the Farm Credit System was established there were 6 million farms that employed around 30% of the US...

Almost nobody is still getting laid off, but this week, it’s not good enough  – by New Deal democrat Today and tomorrow update the two remaining positive sectors of the economy: jobs and real personal income. And the first one continued to give excellent historical readings, but relatively speaking suffered in comparison to their all-time best readings from exactly one year ago. Initial jobless claims rose 7,000 to 198,000, while the more...

More on the sharp deceleration in YoY house price gains, and the Fed’s chasing the phantom menace  – by New Deal democrat Since there is no big economic news again today, let me fill in a little more detail on house prices through January, reported yesterday, vs. CPI for shelter. Here is the monthly % change for the past 18 months for Owners Equivalent Rent in the CPI (blue), vs. the Case Shiller national index (gold) and the FHFA purchase...

YoY house price gains continue to decline  – by New Deal democrat Today is a travel day so I have to keep this brief.  On a monthly basis for January, prices rose 0.2% as measured by the FHFA house price index. But because that was far less of an increase in January last year, YoY house prices as measured by the FHFA index declined to +5.3%. This implies that by January next year OER as measured in the CPI will only be up about 2.1% – well...

3 graphic signs of financial stress  – by New Deal democrat The theme of my weekly “high frequency” economic indicators update over the weekend was the sudden deterioration in some measurements of financial stress. Tomorrow we’ll find out that house prices as measured by both the FHFA and Case Shiller have decline further, and that increases are substantially lower than as measured by the CPI, and on Friday we’ll find out what two of the...