Tag Archives: US EConomics

For one, I find it difficult for behavior economics to explain why people are reacting in irrational ways. For example, University of Chicago poses some statements or questions on the issues. “Why do people often avoid or delay investing in 401ks or exercising, even if they know that doing those things would benefit them?” And, “Why do gamblers often risk more after both winning and losing, even though the odds remain the same, regardless of...

Many of you know me from my telling of past experiences. Here is one more to add to the pile. A recent email to me about an employment opportunity in automotive. My return email to the headhunter. Renaldo: Thank you for your interest.  Having been trapped between Engineering and the plants over the years where I was working was an experience. No amount of logic would sway their demands for what they wanted regardless of their being a part of...

Real final sales and inventories as portents of recession  – by New Deal democrat As I have mentioned previously from time to time, I read people who have interesting things to say even if their worldview is very different from mine. One such person is Mike Shedlock, a/k/a Mish. He’s an aggressive libertarian and has a long track record as a Doomer, but he frequently parses some thought-provoking economic data. It makes me think, even if I...

I agree with Charles Gaba. Medicare Advantage is not much better than Commercial Healthcare Insurance. To wit, it is Commercial Healthcare Insurance gussied up to look like FFS Medicare. The extra benefits given to enrollees in Medicare Advantage comes from FFS Medicare expenditures. Furthermore, the companies providing healthcare to those on Medicare bid low and are paid high: “benchmarks and payments remain above FFS spending levels. We estimate...

Jobless claims: the situation remains, ‘all system go’  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined -2,000 last week to 190,000, while the 4 week moving average increased 1,750 to 193,000. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, increased 5,000 to 1,655,000. All of these remain excellent numbers: To repeat my meme over the past year, virtually nobody is getting laid off. It’s almost impossible to have an economic downturn with...

“Jawboning, the moral suasion in the context of economics and politics. In action such is the use of authority to persuade various entities to act in certain ways. It can sometimes be underpinned by the implicit threat of future government regulation.” President Joe Biden uses the bully pulpit during the State of the Union address to call for a universal price cap on insulin for all diabetes patients. The proposal is very unlikely to pass the...

This is another inciteful commentary by “annie asks you.” Just like Josh in the movie “Big,” I am raising my hand, stating “I don’t get it.” I don’t get it as to why people would prefer trump over Biden especially after two years of a recovering economy. Maybe many of them were not around for 2007/8 when the nation did not return to normalcy for years after the crash. A politician finally read the tea leaves, the nature of the economy (which is...

February manufacturing and January construction continue negative, while auto sales improve  – by New Deal democrat We started out yet another month of data with bad news in two leading sectors. The ISM manufacturing index has been showing contraction since November, and its more leading new orders subindex since September. And did so again in February, with the total index increasing slightly to 47.7, and the new orders index rebounding...

I am in Arizona these days and watching the state and local area scramble to get developments approved before the Federal Agency in charge of the Colorado River water decides who gets what. I suspect if you have an approved Build, a state will be allowed to build it. The Feds have applied the new restricts and the counties have to show they have a 100-year water supply. Interesting maneuvering in this story. Outside of Phoenix sits a farm. The...

Housing prices continue to come down – like a feather  – by New Deal democrat As I’ve repeated many times in the past 10 years, in housing prices follow sales with a lag. Housing permits and starts both peaked early in 2022, and house prices followed during the summer. This morning the FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes for December showed continued declines both on a monthly and YoY basis, continuing to presage a similar decline in...