Tag Archives: US EConomics

Oil prices rose 55% in 2021, the most since 2009, while natural gas prices rose 47%, the most since 2016, Focus on Fracking, RJS Oil prices rose for a second week after the initial Omicron selloff, as oil traders and most everyone else have become convinced that Omicron poses little risk to oil demand . . . after rising 4.3% to $73.79 a barrel last week on trouble in Libya, a big drawdown on US crude supplies, and on a refinery explosion in...

Grading my 2021 forecasts Critical self-examination is, or at least ought to be, part of the process of making forecasts. After all, how can you learn if you don’t see how earlier hypotheses panned out? As I have usually done, let’s take a look back at how I forecast 2021 was going to look, to see how well I did. To make a long story short, according to the long and short leading indicators I track, there was never any real doubt that the...

RJS, MarketWatch 666, October’s Case–Shiller HPI; Advance Economic Indicators for November With the major month end reports already released last week, the only widely watched report released this week was the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October from S&P Case-Shiller, which doesn’t even report any prices of homes, but just a index generated by averaging relative sales prices of homes that sold during August, September and October against...

Agricultural Economist and Farmer Michael Smith Sherman Act v. Modern Conglomerate Agriculture Multiple times the Biden Administration, along with Secretary Vilsack, and other administrations have made multiple public comments and now threats of investigation of beef producers and their horizontal and vertical integration over the past few decades. The targeting of the beef industry is one of the loudest and most recent, but we fail to realize...

Alan Collinge’s Student Loan Justice Facebook page. I keep talking about how the consolidation fees, late fees, forbearance interest, etc. and the interest on the previous adds up over time. Pretty soon, it surpasses the original loan balance. There are probably worse examples of this occurring. As it is, the non-principal payments are more than twice the original principal. The original loan was $105,000. As you can see there is ~$81,000 in...

The labor market closes out 2021 on the best note yet The final economic data in 2021 was this morning’s report on initial and continued jobless claims. And the good news for workers continued. New claims declined back under 200,000 to 198,000, the best pandemic showing except for November 20’s 194,000, and December 4’s 188,000. The 4 week average of new claims declined to 199,250: This is the best showing for the 4 week average in over...

A Free Market is Always Full of Cheap Ideas I may have scoffed in the past at the notion of “the marketplace of ideas” but I am coming around to think that maybe it’s not such a bad metaphor. Back in the days of primitive economy, families, clans, tribes produced and consumed their own subsistence. If a surplus was produced beyond what was to be set aside for contingencies, it might be given as a gift to a neighboring group, setting up the...

House price increases continue to show strong market at the end The last housing market data for 2021, the FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes, were reported this morning. Both showed a very slight deceleration in the soaring prices that have marked this year. The FHFA purchase-only index rose 1.1% for October. The YoY% increase was 17.4%, down from the 19.3% YoY peak in July. Meanwhile the Case Shiller national index rose 0.8% m/m, and...

Commenter Blogger RJS Summary: Natural gas supplies above average for first time since April. Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 19-year low. Total oil & products supplies near a 7-year low. Total oil supply falls by most in 25 weeks. Gasoline supplies jump most in 20 months. Distillate’s demand falls by most in 5 years. DUC wells in four basins are lowest on record. DUC backlog at 5.5 months is below pre-pandemic norm. DUC well report for...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for December 20 – 24 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Surprisingly, so far the Omicron variant has had no deleterious effect on any of the data, and in particular, on restaurant reservations. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the economic moment, and bring me a little late Christmas cash in my stocking. Also – Programming Note: This week...