Tag Archives: US EConomics

Housing permits and starts stabilize, but construction comes close to generating yellow recession caution signal  – by New Deal democrat There was good news and bad news in this morning’s report on housing permits, starts, and construction. The good news is that both permits and starts stabilized after last month’s initially reported multi-year lows. The bad news is that single family permits declined further, and even worse the metric best...

The yellow caution flag on retail consumption is up  – by New Deal democrat Retail sales declined -0.1% in June, but since consumer inflation also declined -0.1%, real retail sales were unchanged for the month. There was an upward revision to May which helped out the comparisons slightly, but for the entire first half of this year real retail sales have been treading water at a level below last year. The below graph is normed to 100 as of right...

I was born into an America where the eight-hour workday was widely observed. But what was for me just another fact of life was a hard-won right of the labor movement that cost hundreds of lives. “Death in the Haymarket: A Story of Chicago, the First Labor Movement and the Bombing that Divided Gilded Age America” by James R. Green is a history of the fight for the 8-hour work week and the labor movement of late 19th century America. It is also a...

by Dean Baker Center for Economic and Policy Research That’s what readers must conclude after reading this Washington Post’s piece on President Biden’s plans to increase corporate taxes and taxes on the rich. At one point, the piece reports the response to these plans from Rep. Steven Scalise (R-La), the second-ranking Republican in the House: “He tries to act like it’s not going to affect certain people, but when you raise taxes, it hits...

 – by New Deal democrat AB: July 3rd, NDd mentioned he would review the comparison between the Household and the Establishment Survey Reports today. He had initially look at the comparison July 3. In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing. In particular:  Last month I wrote that “There is a common thread in the...

What got me going to write this was reading a short blurb on The Lever about the economy. The transcript was provided and I read part of it. The content is all about supply chain which I was a part of for 40-something years. I find The Lever script (link below) interesting as it parallels my experience. It may be boring to you. Some background Nineteen seventy-four was a pretty good year for my wife and I. Finished college after three years...

 – by New Deal democrat I’ll spare you the introductory graphs this month, but let me reiterate my opening comments from last month: I never used to pay much attention to the ISM non-manufacturing report. That is partly because it only has a 20 year history, and partly because it seems to be more coincident than leading, but because manufacturing has faded so much as a share of the US economy, with at least two false recession signal in the...

In a previous post, I called attention to the decline in the number of medical students who choose pediatrics as a career. Some of the slack can be taken up by nurses and physician assistants, but access to pediatricians is a growing problem.So, too, is access to pediatric care at hospitals:“Pediatric hospitals have been disappearing all across the country. During the decade before the COVID pandemic, data from the American Hospital Association survey...

 – by New Deal democrat Since tomorrow is the Big Holiday, initial and continuing claims were reported today. [Also, on a programming note, later this morning I will also post about the ISM non-manufacturing survey once it is published, since it now plays an increased role in my forecasting]. Initial claims rose 4,000 last week to 238,000, while the four week average increased 3,250 to 238,500. Continuing claims, with the usual one week delay,...

JOLTS report shows stabilization in almost all metrics for May  – by New Deal democrat The JOLTS report for May showed most metrics continued to show a slight rebounding from their March lows. The overall picture for now appears to be one of stabilization, consistent with the fabled “soft landing.” To the data: job openings (blue in the graph below), a soft statistic that is polluted by imaginary, permanent, and trolling listings, rose...