Tag Archives: US EConomics

Manufacturing and construction sectors continue downward pull on economy  – by New Deal democrat As usual, we start the month with new manufacturing and construction data. The ISM manufacturing index goes all the way back to the 1940s, and has been a very good short leading indicator of recession throughout that time (although nothing’s perfect!). However, since the “China shock” started 20 years ago, with so much offshoring of...

SUNDAY, JULY 2, 2023 Weekly Indicators for June 26 – 30 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Movement among the indicators continues to be slow as molasses, but an important bifurcation stands out: indicators focusing on services continue to show good growth, while indicators focusing on goods are either stalled or outright contracting. As usual, clicking over and reading will...

As read at Naked Capitalism, Yves Smith writes . . .”This post provides a high-level debunking of the Fed/central bank approach of squeezing wages as the first line of attack against of inflation. It cites the views of James Galbraith. If you’d like to read a fuller discussion, please see his article The Quasi-Inflation of 2021-2022 – A Case of Bad Analysis and Worse Response.” NYT Says More Worker Suffering Needed to Bring Inflation Down...

Real income continues to set records, while real spending and real total sales falter  – by New Deal democrat Real personal spending faltered in May, and real total sales continued to falter in April, as of this morning’s report; while real personal income continued to be aided by the big decline in gas prices that started a year ago. Let me start with the good news. Real personal income less government transfer receipts is one of the...

Initial jobless claims: still at distress levels, still not red flag recession warning  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims dropped -26,000 last week to 239,000, the top of their former range this spring. The more important 4 week moving average rose 1,500 to 257,500, a new 18 month high. With a one week lag, continuing claims declined -19,000 to 1.742 million: For forecasting purposes, the more important comparison is YoY. By this metric,...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell already warned he “may” have two more planned Fed rate increases in the making. Even a Fed comment is enough to stymie a housing market increase. US recession fears ease: surprisingly strong data on housing, consumer confidence, labor market, Financial Review, Vince Golle and Reade Pickert President Joe Biden told donors he thinks the US will avoid a potential recession that economists and banks have long been...

Calculated Risks Bill McBride Fed Chair Jerome Powell is participating in a panel discussion today at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2023 in Sintra, Portugal. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell talked tough on inflation Wednesday, saying at a forum that he expects multiple interest rate increases ahead and possibly at an aggressive pace. From Jeff Cox at CNBC: Powell says more ‘restriction’ is coming, including...

Pent-up demand and sales: an update  – by New Deal democrat There’s no big economic news today. So while we wait to see if initial jobless claims continue to worsen tomorrow, and what happens with real personal spending and income, as well as real business sales on Friday, let me point you to an updated detailed discussion of why the Fed’s rate hikes haven’t yet caused the economy to turn down (hint: gas prices plus pent-up demand in several...

This is kind of a big deal. We have all heard about peanut allergy and how dangerous a reaction can be. A new skin patch might increase their tolerance of the legume, according to the results of a late-stage clinical trial. It is not 100% protection if exposed or ingested. It does offer protection equivalent to 3-4 peanuts and for children 1-3 years of age. A start to something better. Just in passing. Good News for Toddlers with Peanut...

Higher new home sales, with lower prices in May: good!  – by New Deal democrat Let me start with my usual caveat about new home sales: while they are the most leading of all housing metrics, they are very noisy and heavily revised. With that out of the way, the bottom line is that they offered pretty definitive evidence that sales have bottomed, while prices are still declining, at least on a YoY basis. Which makes sense, because as I always...