Tag Archives: US EConomics

To be clear, our national debt problem is due to revenues insufficient to cover expenditures. More than anything else, for the past 40 plus years, this accumulated deficit is due to Republican opposition to tax increases coupled with their eagerness to cut taxes on the wealthy given the opportunity to do so. Most, if indeed not all, currently serving Republican US Senators and Representatives, and State legislators have signed a pledge to never vote...

 Are Home Sales Bottoming? – by New Deal democrat For the past few months, I have speculated that home sales were bottoming. This morning’s report on March new home sales put an exclamation mark on that idea.New home sales increased 57,000 in March (from a February level downwardly revised by -17,000) to 683,000 annualized (blue in the graph below). The increasing trend in sales from the bottom of 543,000 last July at this point seems crystal...

House prices on track to go negative YoY by summer, despite monthly increase in February  – by New Deal democrat House prices through February as measured by both the FHFA (gold in the graphs below) and Case Shiller (red) Indexes rose, the former by 0.5% (after a downwardly revised 0.1% in January), and the latter by 0.2% (after a -0.2% decline in January). Here’s what the monthly changes look like for each, as compared with Owners’ Equivalent...

Income tax withholding payments stumble again  – by New Deal democrat The important data this week will include new home sales tomorrow, Q1 GDP and initial jobless claims on Thursday, and most importantly of all (imo) real personal income and spending, along with real manufacturing and trade sales on Friday. In the meantime, today let me take another look at a significant coincident indicator, income tax withholding payments, because the...

EVs and S&DCs: USPS says you can’t have one without the other, Save the Post Office, Steve Hutkins The Postal Service is using the very popular plan to buy electric vehicles (EVs) to justify its very unpopular plan to relocate carriers to Sorting & Delivery Centers (S&DCs). In press releases, news articles, and presentations to business mailers, the two plans are being yoked together, as if you can’t have one without the other....

Gooz News is another substack I have taken to reading. Like “Letters from an American,” it too is well written. Except Gooz News concentrates on healthcare a topic which I have interest in talking about. Being poor results in being exposed to many factors all of which impact your life and that of your family. As Merrill Gooz points out, the nation is wealthy and could easily remove much of the impact of poverty on the health of those who can not...

Weekly Indicators for April 17 – 21 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There’s more *extremely* slow deterioration in some coincident indicators of recession, but at the same time, the downturn has been telegraphed for so long that some leading indicators are on the verge of turning bullish again. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment on all of...

The economic tailwind from last autumn’s declining gas prices is probably over  – by New Deal democrat On Wednesday I discussed how gas prices, with an assist from higher stock prices leading to stock options being cashed in, was the primary reason why the coincident indicators hadn’t rolled over yet. I wanted to explore that a little more: was the boost from lower gas prices going to allow for a “soft landing,” or a “modified limited...

Jobless claims continue to warrant yellow caution flag, while continuing claims shade closer to crimson  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims (blue in the graph below) continued their recent track into recession caution territory this week, as they rose 5,000 to 245,000, 12.9% higher YoY and the 5th time in the last 7 weeks that claims have been 240,000 or above. The last time they were at this level was in January 2022.  The more important...

FTC and Congress Put PBMs on Notice – AAF (americanactionforum.org) The conclusion of the Congressional Plan Much of this post in a copy and past. However, the conclusion is mostly mine. I am starting out with the conclusions and actions of Congress to which the author claims could result in fewer PBMs and increasing prices. If you look at Figure Two, it becomes rather obvious where the fallout is going to be. The smaller PBMs will not be...