Tag Archives: US EConomics

New 20+ year record high mortgage rates begin to impact home sales; bifurcation in new vs. existing home prices continues  – by New Deal democrat In addition to updated reports on new home sales and prices, and existing home prices this morning, there’s some very important news on mortgage rates. Namely, at 7.51%, mortgage rates are the highest they have been since December 2000. Here’s what they looked like through the end of last week:...

A bit of a rewrite on this commentary to make it clear and precise in what it is saying. What is occurring is the Insurance Companies and their CEOs are profiting off of our illness. Insurance Policy pricing keeps going up along with the healthcare insurance deductibles. Unless one can afford the insurance premiums, people rely on higher deductibles. The other issue is such profit taking by executives can leave a company at risk when the economy...

Weekly Indicators for September 18 – 22 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. With interest rates at or near multi-decade highs, and the existing home market completely seized up, the background financial condition have trended even worse. Meanwhile the shorter term indicators may be getting reading to peak. But their previous sharp increase has worked its way into most of the coincident...

“So a Democratic Senator is indicted on serious charges, and no Democrats attacking the Justice Department, no Democrats attacking the prosecutors, no Democrats calling for an investigation of the prosecution, and no Democrats calling to defund the Justice Department,” wrote former Republican representative from Illinois and now anti-Trump activist Joe Walsh.  “Weird, huh?” AB: More on this in the second half of Prof. Heather’s commentary . . ....

The Big Picture of the housing market, and its almost complete bifurcation, in 3 easy graphs  – by New Deal democrat I want to spend some time commenting on the broader issue of why the public perceives inflation is still rampant, even though almost all official measures show it rapidly decelerating, and even completely absent on a YoY basis currently by a few measures. A big part of that has to do with housing, and since I’ve discussed several...

The myth of markets How is it that a market created by Madison Avenue becomes prescient? Omniscient? It doesn’t. It isn’t; never was. Like capitalism, the primacy of private healthcare and the myth of markets are a big lie.The planet is dying from our burning of fossil fuels, yet we hear ‘news readers’ demand that alternative energy needs to be competitive with fossil fuels. Like hell, it does. Markets may, probably do, have a place in an economy,...

With sales near 25 year lows, the huge divergence between the existing and new home markets continues  – by New Deal democrat The drastic bifurcation between the new and existing home markets continues. Existing home sales fell to 4.04 million annualized in August, the lowest level of the entire past 10+ years except for last December and January. In fact, with the additional exception of a number of months during the great home bust during and...

Restaurant fires back at NYT columnist after he complained about the cost of his meal: ‘Keep drinking buddy,’ Fox News, Gabriel Hays. When does a smoked burger by a reputable restaurant cost $78? When you add 4 drinks to the bill along with the $17 burger. No word on the tip left by New York Times columnist David Brooks. Bet it was not much. The “1911 Smoke House Barbeque” is now offering a special in Brooks’ honor:  More of the story . . ....

Initial jobless claims: unresolved seasonality obscures cautionary YoY comparisons  – by New Deal democrat For the last few weeks, I have been highlighting that there is likely some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in the initial claims numbers. That certainly looked like the case this week, as a sharp decline mirrored a similar sharp decline 52 weeks ago. To wit: initial claims declined -20,000 to 201,000, the lowest number since...

Using the stock market and unemployment as an easy and timely coincident recession indicator  – by New Deal democrat My fellow forecaster Bob Dieli has a measure he calls “DeltaDelta,” basically an average of the YoY% change in the stock market and the unemployment rate (which hopefully he won’t mind me mentioning here). It called to mind that occasionally in the past I have noted that a YoY decline in stock prices is a yellow flag for a...