Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

Benefit-Cost Analysis and the Coronavirus We are in the middle of a flurry of decision-making on how to deal with COVID-19.  After much resistance, officials are now canceling public events, closing schools and discouraging other activities that put us in contact with each other.  Travel restrictions and possible shutdowns of workplaces, as we’ve seen in Italy, may be up next. It’s interesting we haven’t heard anything about benefit-cost analysis in...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for March 9 – 13 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There is no clear evidence yet of a drop-off in consumer spending due to the coronavirus in the series I have been tracking, although there is evidence on the producer side. After I posted, I ran across this chart of daily reservations made at OpenTable for various metro areas: There has clearly been a big decline that began about...

Trump Administration Continues to Attack the Environmental Projections First Put Into Place by the Nixon Administration If you, the reader, are uncertain whether to support Trump or whoever the Democratic candidate turns out to be, I urge you to consider the devastating reduction in protections for clean air, clean water, and clean land (thus also clean air/water and food) under the Trump administration’s ‘hate anything Obama’ approach that has put...

The day before yesterday, the Fed made a somewhat unusual announcement of $500,000,000,000 of REPO offers a day for three days in a row. The idea was to let banks unload risky assets before they panicked nipping a financial crisis in the bud. This move was controversial. Unfortunately many critics act as if the Fed was giving away $ 1,500,000,000,000 rather than buying assets with it. I hazard a guess that the Fed will profit from the operation (their...

This is what exponential growth looks like I’ve placed an added emphasis on high frequency indicators, as they will be the first to show the impact of coronavirus on the economy. This morning chain store sales for last week were reported. They were: – Redbook +6.0% YoY – Retail Economist unchanged w/w, +0.9% YoY Needless to say, there was no impact at all on the Redbook number. While the Retail Economist number was definitely weak, there have been other,...

As of the market close on 11 March 2020 the S&P 500 PE had fallen to 18.2. This makes the market cheap in my valuation model as it has fallen below my fair value band. Moreover, with interest rates still falling to new record lows the fair value band is also rising.  In the chart the fair value band is based on February data while the last PE observation is based on the 11 March 2020 close. But with yields approaching the zero lower band it becomes...

Whatever will I write about on a no-data Monday? I won- WTF????? Yesterday I was wondering what I might write about today, as there is absolutely *no* data being released. And then I woke up and turned on the intertoobs . . . . OK. Deep breaths. For those of you who wonder what the h#/! Is going on, here’s my take. 1. Until resolute government action is taken, the coronavirus situation is going to continue to worsen. As of yesterday, we passed 500 known...

The BSing of the Red Death: and a K.I.S.S. model for the coronavirus pandemic A Reuters/Ipsos poll this past week found that only 2 in 10 Republicans, vs. 4 in 10 Democrats, say the coronavirus poses an imminent threat to the United States. In keeping with that lack of concern, fewer republicans are taking any steps to prepare, such as washing their hands more frequently. Anecdotally, from several GOPers in my neighborhood as well as from the proverbial...

February jobs report: a blowout HEADLINES: +273,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate declined -0.1% to 3.5% U6 underemployment rate rose 0.1% to 7.0% Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession   I am highlighting these because many leading indicators overall have strongly suggested that an employment slowdown is here. The following more leading numbers in the report tell us about where the economy is likely to be a few months from now. These...

 Vehicle sales for February continue to show mixed picture Let’s take a look at February car and heavy truck sales. Putting this in perspective of economic cycles, typically, after housing turns, consumer purchases of vehicles and then other durable goods (like major appliances) turn down. Broader consumer purchases are the last to turn down before a recession. Light vehicle sales in February were estimated by the BEA at 16.7 million annualized (blue in...