Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

Initial jobless claims continue near expansion lows I’ve been monitoring initial jobless claims closely for the past several months, to see if there are any signs of stress. This is because the long leading indicators were negative one year ago, and many – but not a majority – of the short leading indicators have recently turned negative as well. So I have been on “recession watch.” But no recession is going to begin unless and until layoffs increase. To...

August new home sales continue rebounding trend Let me start out my look at this morning’s August new home sales report with my typical housing mantra: Interest rates lead sales Sales lead prices Prices lead inventory We saw all of that in this morning’s report. First, the trend of rising single family sales continues, and the three month average of this very volatile series (blue), shown in comparison with single family housing permits  was the...

The incipient housing choke collar: July prices update Three months ago I first wrote about the concept of a “housing choke collar” constraining economic growth, to wit: The FHFA and Case-Shiller price indexes have only decelerated to a point where they roughly match median household income growth. This makes me wonder if prices for new homes will shoot back up again quickly as demand returns. If so, we could wind up in a “choke collar” situation...

by New Deal democrat Tame inflation —-> “soft landing”? I have a new post up at Seeking Alpha. So long as inflation remains tame, the Fed has scope to bring about a “soft landing” to the slowdown, without there necessarily being a recession (so long as the Toddler in the White House doesn’t tip over the whole apple cart). As usual, clicking over and reading puts a penny or two in my pocket. ...

Take Your Pick of Left Wing Climate Change Narratives: Green Abundance or Righteous Austerity While I was preoccupied with other things, the US left settled on a pair of competing climate change narratives.  By the time I looked, the choice was down to just these two, and no other views could be considered. View #1, Green Abundance, is that combating climate change means unleashing the power of renewable energy.  Fortunately, according to this story,...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for September 16 – 20 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. For all of the discussion about various iterations of the treasury bond yield curve, it is little noted that right now it is sending a different message than virtually every other long leading indicator for the economy. As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you up to the moment on the economy, and bring me a penny or...

A closer look at the housing rebound On Wednesday we got some excellent new residential construction numbers. I went into a lot more detail, showing how – exactly as I forecast – the turn in interest rates led the turn in housing sales by about six months, over at Seeking Alpha. As usual, clicking over and reading helps reward me with a penny or two for my efforts. While I am at it, on the subject of housing, here is a chart I am working on (not...

Initial claims increasingly foreclose 2019-early 2020 downturn I’ve been monitoring initial jobless claims closely for the past several months, to see if there are any signs of stress. This is because the long leading indicators were negative one year ago, and many – but not a majority – of the short leading indicators have recently turned negative as well. So I have been on “recession watch.” But no recession is going to begin unless and until layoffs...

Housing: BOOM! Well, this is an easy post. This morning’s report (Wed.) on housing permits and starts showed new expansion highs in both overall permits and starts. The less volatile single family segment also recovered, with both single family permits and starts at one year highs, although slightly below their expansion peaks. Here are total and single family permits: And here are total and single family starts: The housing downturn is over. As...

Industrial production rebounds; another message of slowdown, no recession  Industrial Production is the King of Coincident Indicators.  When industrial production peaks and troughs coincides more often than any other indicator to NBER’s recession dating. Let’s take a look at the report for August, which was pretty darn good, which was released this morning. Production as a whole increased 0.6%, and last month’s report was revised upward by +0.1%. The...