– by New Deal democrat In the past, industrial production has been the King of Coincident Indicators, since its peaks and troughs tended to coincide almost exactly with the onset and endings of recessions. That weighting has faded somewhat since the accession of China to the world trading system in 1999 an the wholesale flight of US manufacturing to Asia, generating several false recession signals, most notably in 2015-16. But it is still an...

Normally, a sentence that begins “Donald Trump says . . . “ is not worth finishing, and that’s how a recent blog post over at jabberwocking.com begins. But finish it I did, and it turns out that DJT says he wants to eliminate all federal income taxes on Social Security. Currently, if SS is your only income, there already are no federal taxes on it. If you make additional income above your SS distributions, you can be taxed at normal federal rates on...

The methods economists bring to their research There are other sleights of hand that cause economists problems. In their quest for statistical “identification” of a causal effect, economists often have to resort to techniques that answer either a narrower or a somewhat different version of the question that motivated the research. Results from randomized social experiments carried out in particular regions of, say, India or Kenya may not apply to other...

Blog London City airport will test the government’s commitment to the climate Approving expansion would send the wrong message about the new approach to planning By Alex Chapman 17 August 2024 In her first speech as Chancellor Rachel Reeves set...

by Joyce Vance Civil Discourse  David Hogg survived the tragic 2018 mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida. He went on to become one of a generation of student activists who had enough and decided to fight for gun reform instead of just waiting for the next shooting. Hogg was one of the main organizers of the March for Our Lives, the largest single day of protest against gun violence in our country. He has...

Get the report and check out this week’s outlook including oil.

 – by New Deal democrat The second point of economic data released this morning, retail sales, were also positive. On a nominal basis, retail sales in July rose 1.0%. After adjusting for inflation, they rose 0.8% to the highest level so far this year. The below graph norms both real retail sales (dark blue) and the similar measure of real personal consumption of goods (light blue) to 100 as of just before the pandemic: Since the end of...

An obsession with growth has generated massive inequality, undermined global economic stability, and weakened faith in democracy. Reversing these trends requires reining in the power of financial capital and managing global trade flows.This essay is part of a series of articles, edited by Stewart Patrick, emerging from the Carnegie Working Group on Reimagining Global Economic Governance. It was first published on 17 July 2024 on the Carnegie Endowment website.“Growth” is a term used by...

Banks Create Money, Not Save It.

The assumption that climate change won't affect most of the economy is absurd. It’s like saying a ship can sail smoothly while ignoring a storm brewing on the horizon. Manufacturing relies on energy and raw materials, both highly climate-sensitive. Imagine trying to build a house with wet cement. Ignoring the effects of climate change is like ignoring the rain while constructing that house. It leads to gross underestimations of economic damage. When storms destroy supply...