Mosler Economics

Looks like another small decrease as the deceleration continues: Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Sales to be Over 17 Million SAAR again in June By Bill McBride June 24 (Calculated Risk Blog) — The automakers will report June vehicle sales on Friday, July 1st. Note: There were 26 selling days in June, up from 25 in June 2015.From WardsAuto: Forecast: June Sales to Reach 11-Year High A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. automakers to deliver 1.57 million light vehicles this month....

Weaker than expected, and turns out it was up in April followed by down in May as previously discussed: HighlightsMay proved to be a generally weak month for the factory sector. Minus signs spread across the durable goods report with total new orders down a very sizable 2.2 percent and ex-transportation orders, which exclude aircraft and vehicles, down 0.3 percent. The worst news comes from capital goods, a sector where weakness points to weakness in business investment and...

Remember the enthusiasm around last month’s move up? As suspected, it’s reversed and the 3 month average remains negative: HighlightsMay was a weak month based on the minus 0.51 result for the national activity index, one that drives the 3-month average to a minus 0.36 level consistent with below average growth. Production, not employment, is by far the weakest component in May, at minus 0.32 and reflecting contraction in industrial production and factory utilization....

HighlightsDespite another fall in rates, the purchase index is not pointing to acceleration for home sales, down 2.0 percent in the June 17 week with year-on-year growth slowing 4 percentage points to 12 percent. Low rates, however, are an immediate plus for refinancing where the index rose 7.0 percent. And rates are indeed low, at an average 3.76 percent for conforming loans ($417,000 or less) which is down 3 basis points in the week and at its lowest since May 2013. Not...

Looks to me like it’s still decelerating? From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Continues Solid Growth in June; Signals Higher U.S. Business Activity Through End Of The YearRead more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#fcgmQuzJH31oFHbc.99 Wage ‘pressures’ indicators, after all this time, are finally moving up towards what would have been considered historically very low levels, so time to slam on the brakes? (Not that rate hikes are slamming on...

Still nothing happening here:More imports, fewer exports:

Not good. Note from the chart how growth has stalled, and housing is not likely to add as much to GDP this year as it did last year: HighlightsHousing starts are solid but not permits. Starts did slip 0.3 percent to a 1.164 million annualized rate in May but the trend is positive with the year-on-year gain at a very strong 9.5 percent. Permits, in contrast, popped 0.7 percent higher in the month to a 1.138 million rate but here the year-on-year rate remains deep in the...

Continues well below the Fed’s target: HighlightsWhatever pressure may be building in import & export prices or even producer prices, it has yet to give much of a boost to consumer prices which rose only 0.2 percent in May. Core prices, that is prices excluding food and energy, also came in at plus 0.2 percent.Year-on-year rates aren’t going anywhere, at only plus 1.0 percent for total prices and plus 2.2 percent core prices. Though the 2.2 percent rate does exceed the...

Purchase applications backed off but have been moving higher for several months, though still very depressed:A nice move up but as per the chart it’s hovering around 0:Worse than expected, and continues at recession levels, and note the decline in autos:HighlightsA steep drop in vehicle production pulled industrial production lower in May, down 0.4 percent. Vehicle production had been leading this report but fell 4.2 percent in the month excluding which the headline loss...

Saudi output hasn’t materially changed. The previous strategy was to set the price low enough for output to increase. So seems the new oil minister has changed course is now setting price as high as he thinks he can set it without triggering development of higher priced oil.Let me suggest this GDP ‘forecast’ is about as high as it gets before substantially falling back, as it did last quarter. This is because it is an account of what’s happened in April and May based on...