Mosler Economics

The charts of all the components look just as bad.And note the collapse after oil capex collapsed:HighlightsThe small business optimism index rose 0.2 points in May to 93.8, slightly extending April’s 1 point bounce back from 2-year lows but remaining well below the 42-year average of 98. Four of the 10 components of the index showed gains in May, two were unchanged and four declined. Expectations that the economy will improve posted the largest gain, rising 5 points but...

Rail Week Ending 04 June 2016: Rail Contraction Accelerates By Steven HansenJune 10 (Econintersect) — Week 22 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The improvement seen last week evaporated, and was likely due to the a holiday falling into different weeks between years. And this indicator: Cost cutting likewise reduces income:

The deceleration in jobs openings released yesterday leads the deceleration in employment. Downward job revisions also mean lower income estimates, so watch for personal income and savings to be revised down as well. And it all started decelerating after oil capex collapsed at the end of 2014. Job Openings Hit Record High, But Hiring Fades In JOLTS Survey By Ed CarsonJune 8 (IBD) — Job openings matched a record high in April but hiring activity sank to the lowest since last...

From the MBA: The Refinance Index increased 7 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent lower than the same week one year ago. HighlightsPurchase applications for home mortgages rose strongly in the June 3 week and were up 12 percent from the prior week when seasonally adjusted to account for the...

Lower than expected as last month’s higher print reverses. Remember all the hoopla over last month’s number? And how the consumer was finally spending? I suspect you’ll hear nothing about how that’s not the case after all, and note how the chart shows it’s been decelerating since the collapse of oil capex: Consumer Credit Released On 6/7/2016 3:00:00 PM For Apr, 2016 HighlightsApril was a strong month for retail sales but it wasn’t an especially strong one for consumer...

This went from bad to worse but they don’t seem to pay much attention to it: Labor Market Conditions IndexHighlightsLast week’s employment report was very weak and is reflected in May’s labor market conditions index which came in at minus 4.8 for the fifth straight negative reading and the lowest of the economic cycle, since May 2009. April is revised 2.5 points lower to minus 3.4 which, next to May, is the second lowest of the cycle. These readings point to a fundamental...

Continuing to decelerate. As previously discussed, I see no chance of a reversal until deficit spending- public or private- picks up to offset the unspent income/savings desires: Employment SituationHighlightsThe assessment of the labor market, not to mention the outlook for consumer spending, just came down as nonfarm payrolls proved much weaker than expected in May, up only 38,000 with the two prior months revised a total of 59,000 lower. The Verizon strike is a negative in the data but...

Seems the corporate profits report includes the Fed’s profits, all of which get turned over to the Treasury, of course… How the Fed Stopped the “Corporate Profit Recession” (and the Media Fell for it) By Wolf TichterThe end of the corporate “profit recession” has been declared last week. It was based on data by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, released on May 27. Corporate profits, after declining with some zigs and zags since their peak in the third quarter 2014, suddenly ticked up in the...

A forecast for tomorrow’s employment report: ADP Employment ReportHighlightsThe May employment report isn’t expected to be very strong but it may not prove, in contrast to expectations, to be any weaker than April, at least based on ADP’s estimate for private payrolls which comes in at 173,000 vs ADP’s revised 166,000 for April. The Econoday consensus for private payrolls in tomorrow’s government report is noticeably lower, at 150,000 vs May’s 171,000. ADP has been very accurate so far this...