Mosler Economics

U.S. gasoline demand, one of the strongest pillars supporting oil consumption, fell in January for the first time in 14 months, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed. Below growth rates that marked prior recessions:

Who would’ve thought?;) The ECB makes this point in a footnote on page 10: The ECB Explains Why Central Banks Can’t Go Bankrupt in a Footnote “Central banks are protected from insolvency due to their ability to create money and can therefore operate with negative equity.” Trade deficit higher than expected. GDP estimates being revised down: International Trade And note the general downturn in trade which has always been associated with recessions in the past:GDP growth forecast down to...

How bad does this look? If it was adjusted for inflation it would look even worse:QE, negative rates, easing bias vs the Fed in hiking mode, and the euro is going up anyway? Seems the ECB and euro area exporters might be getting concerned?

The Fed’s labor market index is showing some slack: Labor Market Conditions IndexHighlightsEmployment has been strong, especially the participation rate, but isn’t being reflected in the Federal Reserve’s labor market conditions index which came in at minus 2.1 in March vs a downwardly revised 2.5 percent decline in February. The index, experimental in nature, is a broad composite of 19 separate indicators and is rarely cited by policy makers. Another bad one, on the heels of very weak...

This is the big news today, and there’s nothing good about it. It’s way below expectations and continues the declilne from last year’s peak: U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decline to 16.45 million annual rate in Marchby Bill McBrideBased on an estimate from WardsAuto, light vehicle sales were at a 16.45 million SAAR in March.That is down about 4% from March 2015, and down about 6% from the 17.43 million annual sales rate last month. A bit better than expected, and, again, the growth rate (though...

Sorry, wrote this up yesterday and never sent it. Purchase apps remain depressed, though a bit off the bottom, and depressed housing sales reports indicate the growth in mtg purchase apps is more about how purchases are financed rather than an indicator of total home purchases: MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsPurchase applications for home mortgages rose by 2 percent in the March 25 week, with the year-on-year increase continuing very strong at 21 percent. Refinance applications declined...

While claims are historically at record lows on a per capita basis, because they are now so hard to get the fact that they are rising some might mean something, but maybe not:Job cuts also look like they are trending a bit higher as well:Note how the chart shows this indicator has been zig zagging lower, so we’ll have to wait until next month to see if it zigs back down again: Chicago PMIHighlightsExpansion is March’s score for the often volatile Chicago PMI which surged 6 full points to a...

So well over a year ago the dollar started going up based on falling oil prices, which I suggested was a mistake. That was because it seemed to me that this time around the falling price of oil was not likely to lower the US current account deficit the way lower oil prices have lowered it in the past. I suggested two reasons. First, US production was likely to go down and therefore oil imports would rise, offsetting much of the price drop. Second, US exports to oil producers were likely to...

At least so far, even with the easier comparisons with last year’s weak sales at this time, there’s still very little growth:Nothing happening here: The chart shows how it stopped rising when oil capex collapsed, and has been working its way lower ever since: Consumer ConfidenceHighlightsLack of wage gains and the exaggerated political climate have yet to dent consumer spirits as consumer confidence is holding firm, at a solid 96.2 in March. An initial drop in February had raised concerns...

Remember the hype when spending came out at up .5 last month- hard evidence the economy was heading north? Well, it just got revised away to a recession like .1, and PCE down to only a 1% year over year increase, and no one is saying anything, with the core CPE gain down to .1 vs last month’s .3 which was deemed evidence of a return to inflation. Not mention the .1 drop in wages and salaries after all the hype about the return of ‘wage inflation’: Personal Income and OutlaysHighlightsThe...