Mosler Economics

Not a good sign for US sales: Mexico Car ProductionMexico’s auto production decreased by 4.1 percent on the year in February of 2016 following a 0.4 percent rise in January and exports dropped 1.2 percent. Automakers produced about 271 thousand units during the month, while exports totaled 220 thousand. Car Production in Mexico averaged 179.92 Thousand Units from 1999 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 330.16 Thousand Units in October of 2014 and a record low of 81.53 Thousand Units...

One more sign we’re losing our first world status- under Obama manufacturing jobs have actually gone up for the first time in a long time, albeit from very low levels: Sales growth is near 0: Truck sales are up some from a year ago but peaked in September: And no sign of runaway big govt here: The last mini run up has flattened out?

Education employment was mysteriously down big last month and up big this month, so best to average the two months, which would mean about 205,000 new jobs each month, which is about where it’s been. However, in any case hours worded and average pay were both down, which means personal income and probably output is that much less, which is not good. Additionally, the downward revision in earnings for last month and the negative print this month tell me ‘the market’ is telling us there’s...

Some commentary on the latest Saudi price changes: Saudi raises crude price to Europe, Asia, cuts it for US Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, Wednesday raised the April prices of its oil to Asia and Europe but cut it slightly for shipments to the United States. My quick WRKO radio interview Down some more, as previously discussed:He’s going the right way, but it’s relatively small and he’s unfortunately still out of paradigm which puts it all at risk of ‘losing the debate’...

As per the charts, a big dip last month was followed but a partial recover this month, but overall it’s going nowhere: Factory Orders Employment dropped from 52.1 to 49.7- not good: ISM Non-Mfg IndexHighlightsThe great bulk of the nation’s economy enjoyed a solid February based on ISM’s non-manufacturing report where the headline index held solidly over breakeven 50, at 53.4 vs January’s 53.5.New orders came in at 55.5, down 1 point from January but still very solid. And backlog orders...

Some up a bit, some down a bit, overall looks to me like downward price pressure continues:Down this week and still moving largely sideways: This is a forecast for Friday’s employment report. It was a little better than expected: ADP Employment ReportHighlightsFriday’s employment report may be on the strong side based on ADP’s private payroll count for February which is a stronger-than-expected 214,000. ADP isn’t always an accurate barometer of the government’s data but it has been the last...

Whoops, less than expected, and as the chart shows the seasonally adjusted rate of sales continues to decelerate from the prior peak months as weakness that began with the collapse of oil capex continues to spread to the rest of the economy:From another source that spins flat to down sales as a positive for continued growth. Seems to me that if any of the ‘pieces’ grow at a lower rate than last year, some other ‘piece’ has to grow at a faster rate than it grew at last year to make up for it....

PMI Manufacturing IndexHighlightsGrowth in Markit Economics’ manufacturing sample is slowing to a crawl, at 51.3 for final February which is, next only to February’s flash of 51.0, the second lowest reading since October 2012. January, at 52.4, was a good month for the manufacturing sector with industrial production up and durable orders up, but the early indications on February are uniformly negative.Production in this report slowed as did new orders where growth is at a 3-1/2 year low....

So at current prices Saudis aren’t making much progress towards their goal of higher sales: First a move up on the inventory thing, followed by a move down on the inventory thing. And looks to me like there’s a lot more downside coming from that inventory thing, etc.:Pretty lame bounce so far from an index that zig zags so much:

As previously suspected, last month’s higher print was just a bit of volatility on the way down, as per the chart: Chicago PMIHighlightsAnother month and another month of wild volatility for the Chicago PMI which lurched from solid expansion in January to noticeable contraction in February. At a headline 47.6, Chicago’s PMI has fallen outside Econoday’s consensus range for a third month in a row! Still, this report is closely watched and confirms other early indications of February...