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The author WARREN MOSLER
WARREN MOSLER
Warren Mosler is an American economist and theorist, and one of the leading voices in the field of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Presently, Warren resides on St. Croix, in the US Virgin Islands, where he owns and operates Valance Co., Inc.

Mosler Economics

Saudi output, Redbook sales, PMI, ISM

While demand for Saudi crude is up a bit, seems it’s still far below their presumed 12 million or so bpd capacity, and their strategy has been to lower their prices to the point where they are selling their full capacity: Nice bounce here, as the year over year comparisons get ‘easier’: RedbookHighlightsStore sales surged in the November 28 week, the week that includes Black Friday. Redbook’s same-store year-on-year sales tally jumped to plus 3.9 percent, more than doubling the pace of...

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Saudi production, Restaurant index

Just came out. Saudis still producing and selling far below their stated ‘cap’: OPEC November Crude Output Down 33,000 Bbl/Day to 32.121 Mln2015-11-30 17:55:55.463 GMTNew York, Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) — Crude-oil production from the 12 OPEC members in November declined 33,000 barrels a day from October, the latest Bloomberg survey of producers, oil companies and industry analysts shows. Figures are in the thousands of barrels a day.Nov. Oct. Monthly 1/1/2012 Nov. vs Est.OPEC Country Est. Output...

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Chicago PMI, Pending home sales, Dallas Fed

Another bad one, reversing last month’s suspect move up: Chicago PMIHighlightsVolatility is what to expect from the Chicago PMI which, at 48.7, is back in contraction in November after surging into strong expansion at 56.2 in October. Up and down and up and down is the pattern with prior readings at 48.7 in September (the same as November) and 54.4 in August.New orders are down sharply and are back in contraction while backlog orders are in a 10th month of contraction. Production soared...

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Credit check

Nothing of consequence here. Growth still below prior cycles and not accelerating as it was beginning to do before oil capex collapsed: While growth of real estate lending is still far below the prior cycle, it has been increasing, probably due to fewer ‘all cash’ purchases, and the modest recovery in prices and sales:Consumer credit growth remains modest and, if If anything, is softening most recently: Looks to me like car loan growth is slowing a bit:

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Mtg prch apps, Durable goods, Personal income and outlays, New home sales, Consumer Sentiment, PMI services

Purchase apps have been flat to down for quite a while now,and the year over year comp will be reflecting that in a few months as well: United States : MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsAfter spiking sharply in the prior when rates jumped and triggered concern they would move even higher, mortgage application volumes eased in the November 20 week as rates settled back with purchase applications down 1.0 percent and refinancing applications down 5.0 percent. However, purchase applications,...

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Discount rate, Profits, GDP commentary

Interesting, with no discount borrowings, the regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents want a discount rate hike? Nine Fed banks called for discount rate hike: minutes Nov 24 (Reuters) — The number of regional Federal Reserve banks pushing for a hike in what commercial banks are charged for emergency loans rose to nine in October, minutes from its discount rate meeting showed. Eight Fed banks had voted to raise the discount rate at the prior meeting in September, a jump from five in July...

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GDP, Consumer confidence, Corporate profits, Richmond Fed, Trade

Output was revised up, but mainly due to growing unsold inventory, with other spending revised lower and showing more deceleration than the first release: GDPHighlightsThird-quarter GDP is revised to an annualized plus 2.1 percent, up 6 tenths from the initial estimate but showing less strength by the consumer with final sales now at plus 2.7 from plus 3.0 percent. Higher inventories are a big factor in the upward revision, subtracting 6 tenths from GDP vs an initial 1.4 percent...

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Copper, Japan, Corp tax policy

They must have found a way for their workers to live on fewer calories… Copper Miners’ Pain Doesn’t Stop Buildup Nov 23 (WSJ) —Global copper production is on track to hit an all-time high of 18.7 million metric tons this year, according to BMO Capital Markets. The cost of producing a pound of copper at Freeport’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia will drop to 61 cents next year, from an estimated $1.05 cents in 2015, according to BMO. Next year, four new mines will increase the world’s copper...

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