Mosler Economics

Same story, expectations trumped up but actual numbers not so good: Bad: Highlights Just when existing home sales seemed to be showing lift the pending home sales index, which tracks initial contract signings, is down 2.8 percent in the January report. This points to weakness for final resales in February and March. The West is the culprit in January’s data, with contract signings down 9.8 percent in the month for year-on-year contraction of 0.4 percent. The Midwest is also...

Up, though less then expected. Nothing here to suggest any kind of economic acceleration: Highlights New home sales have lost some traction and it’s not because of tightening supply. At 555,000, January’s annualized pace came in more than 20,000 below the Econoday consensus and includes a big downward revision, not to December which is 1,000 lower at 535,000, but the cycle high in November which has been cut by 23,000 to 575,000. This report is one of the most volatile on...

Down again, and these are seasonally adjusted: Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages fell a seasonally adjusted 3 percent in the February 17 week, while refinancing applications decreased by 1 percent to the lowest level since January. Unadjusted, the purchase index rose 2 percent from the prior week and was up 10 percent from the year ago week, which included the President’s Day holiday. The refinancing share of mortgage activity continued to decline and was...

Trumped up expectations cooling a bit?PMI Manufacturing Index Flash Services: Initial earnings estimates have tended to fall: This is extraordinary, as their liabilities are most likely predominately euro denominated, which is what I’d call a ‘fundamental short’ position. That is, this has been part of the ‘portfolio shifting’ that has been keeping the euro down: Source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ecb-eurozone-investment-idUKKBN15Z1GE Reserves capable of being...

Manhattan condo market cracking, developers roll out big incentives Manhattan saw rampant new construction since the recession, and thousands of new luxury units flooded the market, with stark consequences. The median sale price for new construction ended 2016 down 44 percent, compared with the end of 2015, according to a quarterly report from Miller Samuel for Douglas Elliman. Closed sales dropped 13 percent. Most worrisome, the supply of condos for sale rose a striking...

This is very euro friendly stuff. Euro Area Current Account Eurozone’s current account surplus widened sharply to EUR 47.0 billion from EUR 41.4 billion in the same month of the previous year. The primary income surplus increased firmly to EUR 18.2 billion from EUR 13.0 billion a year ago and the goods surplus rose to EUR 32.8 billion from EUR 31.4 billion, while the services surplus was nearly unchanged at EUR 6.4 billion. Meanwhile, the secondary income deficit rose to EUR...

Still depressed by historical standards, and still seem to me to be going sideways, as per the charts: Highlights Housing starts did fall 2.6 percent in January but the 1.246 million annualized rate is well above Econoday’s consensus for 1.232 million. Details show a 1.9 percent rise for single-family starts to a 823,000 rate, offset by a 10.2 percent decline in multi-family units to 423,000. Year-on-year, however, both components are very positive, up 6.2 percent for...

First the good news: Up more than expected and last month revised higher: Highlights Consumer spending data have been surprisingly moderate given the unusual strength in consumer confidence, but today’s retail sales report, which includes an important revision, now moves spending more in line with confidence. Retail sales rose 0.4 percent in January which tops Econoday’s very modest 0.1 percent consensus and the top estimate of 0.3 percent. Importantly December, which is the...

Trumped up expectations continue: I understand that by the numbers we aren’t currently considered in ‘recession’… So tell me he’s not a 7 or 8 year old juvenile in a 70 year old body? Play date…

Trumped up expectations fading: No telling why our new President changed his mind on this one. Might have something to do with a kosher house being a two china policy… ;) White House confirms Trump’s agreement to honor ‘One China’ policy By Everett Rosenfeld Feb 10 (CNBC) — A White House statement confirmed a Thursday night report that President Donald Trump had agreed to honor China’s “One China” policy in his first call with the country’s president.“President Donald J....