Mosler Economics

Still Trumped up expectations: Highlights The small business optimism index soared 7.4 points in December to 105.8, the highest reading since December 2004. The outsized increase far exceeds expectations and follows a robust 3.5-point rise in November. NFIB said business owners who expect better economic conditions accounted for about half of the overall increase, with a net 50 percent of respondents expecting that the economy will improve, a 38 point leap up from November....

From the Fed’s research: Highlights The economy may be at full employment but it’s not helping the labor market conditions index which remains flat. For the first negative score since May, December’s index comes in at minus 0.3. Based on this report, there may be more slack than suspected and less risk perhaps of wage inflation. Considered experimental, the labor market conditions index, published by the Federal Reserve, is a composite of 19 separate indicators. ...

The year over year chart continues its 2 year deceleration unabated. No telling where it ends but the end will coincide with increased deficit spending, private or public: Highlights Job growth may be the new economic policy but wage inflation may be the risk. Nonfarm payrolls rose a lower-than-expected 156,000 in December but, in an offset, revisions added a net 19,000 to the two prior months (November now at 204,000 and October at 135,000). But the big story is another...

While surveys remain Trumped up, at least so far when it comes to actual numbers the deceleration continues, and can’t reverse without a commensurate increase in deficit spending, public or private: Highlights ADP is pointing to a softer-than-expected employment report on Friday. ADP’s estimate for private payrolls is 153,000, a still respectable level of growth but noticeably below the Econoday consensus for 172,000. Private payroll growth in Friday’s December employment...

Car sales better than expected, but the annual rate of growth has slowed and 2016 was up less than .5% vs 2015 year. So if vehicles added less than the year before, something else has to add more than it did the year before, or the annual GDP growth slowed: Sales for 2016 hit a new annual record. Sales in 2016 were at 17.465 million, up from the previous record of 17.396 million set last year.Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#A7zlBSb83MtA17vJ.99 Manhattan’s...

Purchase apps now down year over year, and less than half of what they used to be pre crisis: Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages fell 2.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in the December 30 week compared to the level 2 weeks earlier, which was the last prior reading due to the Christmas holiday. The refinance index was down a much sharper 22 percent compared to two weeks ago, as higher interest rates continue to deter refinancing by homeowners to a...

A bit of a bump up going into year end. Could be about expiring tax breaks as has happened in prior years: Highlights Construction had been lagging through most of 2016 but, like the factory sector, appears to have picked up steam going into year-end. Spending rose 0.9 percent in November which just tops Econoday’s high estimate and is the best reading since June. Residential spending rose 1.0 percent in the month on top of October’s 1.6 percent gain. The gain here is...

The now two year deceleration continues: First time published in a ‘mainstream’ economics journal: Dear Prof. Silipo & Prof. Mosler, I am happy to inform you that the Board of Editors of the Journal of Policy Models, upon recommendation from 4 referees, has approved the publication of your study: Maximizing Price Stability in a Monetary Economy Regards, Sabah CavalloEditorial AssistantJournal of Policy Models www.econmodels.com ...

Best to all for the New Year, and may our trumped up expectations eventuate! And last chance to make a 2016 PMC donation. Over $47 million raised, and the same $47 million donated. All costs are sponsored so your donation goes directly to Dana Farber for research! click here to donate:http://profile.pmc.org/WM0015 Why should he? They spend lots of $ there…Putin says Russia will not expel anyone in response to US sanctions Expectations Trumped up, but current conditions...

As previously discussed, exports are falling and imports climbing, with lots more to go: Highlights Trade looks to be a major negative that will be holding down fourth-quarter GDP. The advance trade deficit in goods widened sharply for a second straight month in November, to $65.3 billion following a revised $61.9 billion deficit in October that was nearly $5 billion higher than the last month of the third quarter, September. Exports have been very weak so far this fourth...