Tag Archives: Economic Releases

Prior month revised down, keeping the chart looking very weak for this ‘hard data’ release: Looks like the Saudis mean to keep a bit of upward pressure on prices. Perhaps to offset the weak $US,in which case the higher oil prices work to further weaken the $US: Saudis Seen Keeping Feb. Asia Arab Light Oil Price Unchanged M/m By Serene Cheong and Sharon Cho (Bloomberg) — State-run Saudi Aramco may keep Arab Light crude official selling price unchanged m/m for Feb. sales to...

Worse than expected: Highlights Net exports look to be holding back fourth-quarter GDP following a second month of deep deficit in cross-border goods trade, at $69.7 billion in November following a revised $68.1 billion deficit in October. The monthly average for the third-quarter was much lower, at $63.8 billion. But there is very good news in the report and that’s exports which rose a very strong 3.0 percent in November in to $133.7 billion, led by strong improvement in...

As previously discussed, durable goods and manufacturing, after dipping in 2015 with collapse of oil capex, resumed modest growth from the lower levels which continues: Highlights A jump in aircraft skewed durable goods orders 1.3 percent higher in November which however is well below Econoday’s consensus for 2.0 percent and no better than the low estimate. Orders for civilian aircraft, which have been solid this year, rose 31 percent and reflect Boeing’s success at...

Another hurricane influenced number. Without the receipts from foreign insurance companies looks like it would have been about the same as last month: Highlights Hurricane receipts from foreign insurance companies for losses resulting from hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria shaved $24.9 billion from the nation’s current account deficit to a much lower-than-expected $100.6 billion in the third quarter. But the quarter also benefited from a $6.2 billion narrowing in the goods...

Boring: Highlights A rise for mining offsets a dip for utilities making a modest 0.2 percent gain for manufacturing the story for November’s industrial economy. This report’s manufacturing component has been the only uneven indicator on the factory sector all year which limits the surprise of November’s results. Forecasters weren’t calling for much strength in the first place with Econoday’s consensus at only 0.3 percent for manufacturing. Vehicle production, after a run of...

Expectations all the more trumped up with the new tax bill, but the details show actual conditions aren’t doing so well: HighlightsOptimism among small business owners is surging, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), whose Small Business Optimism Index rose 3.7 points in November to 107.5, the highest level since November 2004. The monthly jump in small business sentiment beat analysts’ forecasts with 8 out of the 10 components of the index...

Something happened about the time of the Presidential election that caused a sudden deceleration of bank lending, which had already been decelerating since the collapse of oil capex. And still no signs of a recovery here, as consumers seem to be instead dipping into savings to sustain consumption as personal income growth decelerates as well:

Higher than expected but last month revised lower, so seems best to wait a month (and sometimes more) for the revisions before passing judgement. And the wage data, if anything, is that of a very low demand economy with lots of excess capacity: Highlights Overheating may not be the description of the labor market but heating up definitely is. Nonfarm payrolls rose a stronger-than-expected 228,000 in November led by outsized gains for manufacturing at 31,000, construction...

Disruptive headlines: Trump announces U.S. will recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital Trump: Government shutdown ‘could happen’ Saturday Mania in progress:

Winding down from post hurricane levels, however keep in mind this is a forecast of Friday’s number, not report of actual private payrolls: Highlights A pre-hurricane total of 190,000 is ADP’s call for November private payroll growth which would follow a hurricane-related upswing of 252,000 in October and 15,000 downswing in September. This fits with Econoday’s consensus for Friday’s November report where private payrolls are expected to rise 184,000. Demand for labor has...