Tag Archives: Uncategorized

from Maria Alejandra Madi Since the late 1980s,  the World Bank has been defending a policy agenda that reinforces the free market model of endogenous economic growth where human capital plays an outstanding role since the acquisition of abilities would increase the productivity levels, and as a result, the income levels. In the model of endogenous growth, the evolution of the level of product per worker depends on the increase of productivity. Regarding the human capital model, the long...

Clinton Vs. Trump: IBD/TIPP Presidential Election Tracking Poll (IBD/TIPP) The IBD/TIPP poll — a collaboration between Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence (TIPP) — has been the most accurate poll in recent presidential elections (About IBD/TIPP Poll). The latest results for the IBD/TIPP Presidential Election Tracking Poll will be released each morning by 6 a.m. ET. Trump Leads Clinton By 1 Point Going Into Debate (IBD/TIPP) Donald Trump has...

Starts very weak, but permits up. It’s about permits, so we’ll see if they level off or continue to rise: Highlights Starts are mixed but permits are up in what is a deceptively solid housing starts & permits report. Starts plunged what looks like a shocking 9.0 percent in September, to a 1.047 million annualized rate. But the drop is tied entirely to the volatile multi-family component where starts fell a massive 38 percent in the month to a 264,000 rate. The more...

The latest UK (un)employment data (August) show at worst some stalling of the relatively high pace of the growth of employment. But there is no sign of any kind of Brexit cliff. The latest UK retail sales data show a 4,1% increase in volume (September). Obviously, people care more about earnings growth (2% higher wages and 1,6% more employment compared with one year ago) than about Brexit. This surprised me: average store prices were 1,1% lower than one year before. The latest UK data on...

from Jim Stanford I was somewhat surprised to see Stephen Poloz recently urging economists to do more work identifying and disseminating research on the supposed benefits of free trade.  That’s slightly beyond his job description (perhaps more fitting with his last position as head of Export Development Canada).  But like economic leaders elsewhere in the world, Mr. Poloz is obviously concerned with the disintegration of popular support for neoliberal free trade deals.  That...

Fed continues to fail to achieve it’s 2% target: No sign here of housing growth picking up from where it’s been: Highlights The new home sector picked up steam in the third quarter and looks to end the second half with strength. The housing market index held on to the bulk of its 6-point surge in September, coming in at 63 for October in only a 2 point slip. Home builders are very optimistic about future sales, the leading component of the report which is at 72 and up 1...

from David Ruccio We’ve just learned that the corporate payouts—dividends and stock buybacks—of large U.S. firms are expected to hit another record this year. At the same time, John Fernald writes for the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco that the “new normal” for U.S. GDP growth has dropped to between 1½ and 1¾ percent, noticeably slower than the typical postwar pace. What’s the connection? Fernald, as is typical of many others who have concluded the United States has entered a...

Well below expectations and further contraction: Highlights The first indication on October’s factory conditions is negative. The Empire State index is below zero for a third month in a row, at minus 6.80 vs similar readings in September and August. And the details are almost entirely negative with new orders at minus 5.60 for a second sub-zero score in a row. Shipments are at minus 0.60 with employment in reverse for a fourth straight month, at minus 4.70. Unfilled orders...

from Peter Radford Really. I am hardly alone in ranting on about economics, but it never changes. How can it? The intellectual honesty required to make the sort of shift needed to recapture the discipline’s honor simply doesn’t exist. Its practitioners are too deeply embedded and ingrained. Its students are too intimidated by the burden of its closed social pressures. Nowhere is there a leader willing to take on the mantle of righting the ship. So it continues to wallow low in the water,...

In the EU, house prices are Increasing too fast (graph 1). Yes, I do know that the general price level is rising, too. And I do know that wages are increasing even somewhat faster than the general price level – which mitigates problems. While, a problem in its own right, in Italy and Greece house prices have been declining for years and are still declining. And almost nowhere the record levels of 2007 have been reached (graph 2). But that does not matter. House prices are increasing too...