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Tag Archives: Uncategorized

Wages not commensurate with labor productivity in the USA

Since 1975 workers have received almost none of the gains of increased productivity, which has increased by 143% since around 1975 (figure 14). In other words, productivity has more than doubled, while workers received none of the gains. This can be explained by the deindustrialization of the US economy, as heavy industries followed by manufacturing in general were exported to Asia. Due to this trend there was a huge decrease in unionization which went from 39% in 1940 to around 10% in...

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Personal Income and Spending, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed

Personal income a bit below expectations, spending met expectations but last month revised down a bit. And the GDP report already had consumer spending way down and less than expected and we already know auto sales are falling behind last year’s totals: Highlights Personal income rose a solid but slightly lower-than-expected 0.3 percent in September with the wages & salaries component, which weakened in August, also at plus 0.3 percent. Consumer spending was especially...

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The oddity of a Brexit odyssey

By Jamie Morgan Globalizations is a leading inter-disciplinary journal with an interest in political economy. It has notably published on exploitative work practices, the Arab Spring, land grabs, climate change, and the power asymmetries and future prospects of governance processes. The journal recently organized a special forum on Brexit. The forum includes contributions from many points of view: British history, the history of European integration, the role of class, the rise of the...

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James Tobin

James Tobin was a leading - perhaps the leading - American neo-Keynesian macroeconomist in the era of Keynesian dominance after World War II that extended through to the early 1970s. Along with growth theorist Robert Solow and micro and trade theorist Paul Samuelson, the three substantially shaped what became known as the neoclassical synthesis which [...]

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Consumer sentiment, GDP comments and charts

Doesn’t look like ‘improvement’ the way I see it? Looks like others are seeing it my way as well this time: Sorry, but the economy’s growth spurt isn’t going to last By Jeff Cox Oct 28 (CNBC) — Excluding “transitory” effects, the actual growth rate would have been closer to the 1.5 percent rate of the past four quarters. Still decelerating since the collapse of oil capex (and the presumed windfall for the consumer…): This is a relatively new series. so don’t know if it...

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Gasoline demand, Durable goods shipments, Pending home sales, Soybean exports

Miles driven had been rising. Fuel efficiency is part of this decline but probably more to it: From yesterday’s durable goods report. GDP is about shipments: As per the chart, this series is not doing well: A surge in soybean exports likely helped to shrink the trade deficit in the third quarter. As a result, economists expect that trade contributed a full percentage point to GDP growth in the third quarter after adding a mere 0.18 percentage point in the April-June...

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Inequality as policy: selective trade protectionism favors higher earners

from Dean Baker Globalization and technology are routinely cited as drivers of inequality over the last four decades. While the relative importance of these causes is disputed, both are often viewed as natural and inevitable products of the working of the economy, rather than as the outcomes of deliberate policy. In fact, both the course of globalization and the distribution of rewards from technological innovation are very much the result of policy. Insofar as they have led to greater...

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Durable goods orders, Philly Fed state coincident index, Labor force additions

This should have been doing better by now, indicating that, in general, unspent income is still not being sufficiently offset by deficit spending, public or private: Highlights Flat is the takeaway from the September durable goods report where orders slipped 0.1 percent, a lower-than-expected result offset however by an upward revision to August which now stands at plus 0.3 percent. A 45 percent monthly downswing for defense aircraft is a special factor in the September...

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US balance of trade, New home sales, PMI health care premiums, ECB statement, German consumer morale

A bit fewer than expected and prior month revised down bringing it more in line with permits: A nice uptick here, but as per the chart too soon to say the downtrend has reversed. And notice, again, how employment is faltering as has been the case in most of the surveys: Highlights Markit Economics’ U.S. samples are reporting a sharp upturn in business this month, first with Monday’s manufacturing report and now with the service flash where the headline index is up nearly 3...

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Auto sales forecast, Euro area manufacturing and composite PMI, Redbook retail sales, Consumer confidence, Richmond Fed

Still negative: Should hold up as long as the euro stays relatively weak due to portfolio selling, which has been all but continuous for the last couple of years or so. At some point ‘fundamentals’ including relative prices and the current account surplus ‘drain the swamp’ and take over: Back down again: Back down: Still negative:

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