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Lowest leve of new jobless claims ever on a per capita basis. Yet U6 unemployment remains near the highs of the prior recession. Leads me to suspect the reason for the low claims is they’ve become a lot harder to get, shutting off an automatic fiscal stabilizer, as previously discussed:Nothing exciting happening from this point of view, either. The large year over year gains were only due to the large spike followed by a several month dip last year: Rail Week Ending 09 April 2016: The Data...

A bit of an increase after a dip, but still low and still depressed, as per the chart. And spikes up like this have most often subsequently reversed: MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsDriven by falling interest rates, mortgage application activity was brisk in the April 8 week both for home purchases, up 8.0 percent, and refinancing, up 11.0 percent from the previous week. Purchase applications are up a striking 24 percent from this time last year, attaining the second highest level since...

When this we going up a bit it made headlines. Now when it’s flashing recession it doesn’t: NFIB Small Business Optimism IndexHighlightsSmall business owners remain pessimistic, with the small business optimism index dipping another 0.3 points in March to 92.6, surpassing February’s two year low and remaining well below the 42-year average of 98. Four of the 10 component indices posted a gain and six posted declines. Among the most optimistic parts of the index, plans to increase capital...

Contributions reduce aggregate demand: US faces ‘disastrous’ $3.4tn pension funding hole (FT) — The US public pension system has developed a $3.4tn funding hole. The collective funding shortfall of US public pension funds is three times larger than official figures showed. Joshua Rauh, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, who carried out the study, said: “The pension problems are threatening to consume state and local budgets in the absence of some major changes. Currently, states and...

Here we go- the inventory liquidation looks to be underway in earnest. Again, sales also fell, so the inventory to sales ratio remains at a still very high 1.36%. Look for more downward revisions to Q1 GDP: Wholesale TradeHighlightsWholesalers aggressively drew down their inventories in February, 0.5 percent lower following a revised 0.2 percent draw in January. Auto inventories were worked sharply lower in February, down 1.0 percent for the largest monthly decline since September...

April 8th, 2016 On Thursday 7th April Ann Pettifor took part in one of John McDonnell’s road shows with Professor Simon Wren Lewis. The events are aimed at broadening the debate around economics in Britain. Ann discussed The case for the Green New Deal, and her powerpoint presentation is attached below. Framing the Economic Narrative

There are a few slots still open: Audience with Warren Mosler Not much happening here. Certainly no signs of any kind of a consumer spending boom,and it’s been decelerating some for the last year or so:

Reversed last weeks gain, and year over year gain down to 11% and falling rapidly towards 0: MBA Mortgage Applications Claims remain depressed, but it’s becoming more clear that the reason is difficulty in obtaining them, rather than an indication of a ‘healthy jobs market’:

In order to complete system upgrades, it will be necessary to take NEP offline for awhile. The scheduled maintenance window for this is for Saturday April 9, 2016 between 8:00 a.m. and 10:00 a.m. [Translate]

U.S. gasoline demand, one of the strongest pillars supporting oil consumption, fell in January for the first time in 14 months, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed. Below growth rates that marked prior recessions: