AAR: March Rail Carloads and Intermodal Decreased Year-over-year by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2023 03:25:00 PM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission by AAR to Bill McBride. Rail volumes today are being negatively influenced by broader economic trends, including slowdowns in industrial output, high inventory levels at many retailers, lower port activity, and...
Read More »March employment report 2: unemployment recession indicators
Scenes from the March employment report 2: unemployment recession indicators – by New Deal democrat A reminder: I may be offline for the next couple of days. In the meantime, yesterday I looked at the 5 leading indicators contained in the employment report, and summarized how they either signal recession now or within the next 3 to 6 months. Today I want to focus on unemployment and underemployment. Economist Gloria Sahm’s Rule, namely...
Read More »Scenes from the March employment report 1: Leading sector indicators
Scenes from the March employment report 1: leading sector indicators – by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news this week until Wednesday’s CPI report, and as a side note, I might be offline for a day or two later this week. In the meantime, today and tomorrow let’s take a look at some of the important information from last Friday’s employment report. Today, I’m taking a look at the leading employment sectors and several...
Read More »What’s Going On?
Poland, Hungary, Turkey, Russia, Israel, India, Italy, Brazil, …, and even the USA; around the world, we are seeing democracies lurching toward autocracy and/or theocracy. A hundred years from now, history will tell us what it was all about. It would help to know now. Though no common denominator stands out; one of the more common is religion. More specifically, it is right-wing religious groups either leading the charge toward theocracy or being...
Read More »New Deal democrat’s Weekly Indicators for April 3 – 7
Weekly Indicators for April 3 – 7 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Probably unsurprisingly, the big news this week was the effect of the revisions to the initial jobless claims data, and also the turning down of several sectors in the monthly jobs report. Anyway, as usual clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the data, and reward me a little bit...
Read More »CRFB’s FINAL ANALYSIS OF 2023
CRFB’s FINAL ANALYSIS OF 2023 SOCIAL SECURITY TRUSTEES REPORT Analysis of the 2023 Social Security Trustees’ Report, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Social Security Dale Coberly: I reported a few days ago on CRFB’s “preliminary analysis” of the 2023 Social Security Trustees Report. I hoped to show then that though CRFB reported “true” facts, they surrounded those facts with misleading language intended to promote hysteria...
Read More »March jobs report: leading sectors turn down, pre-recessionary report still quite positive
March jobs report: leading sectors turn down in a pre-recessionary, but still quite positive, report – by New Deal democrat Unsurprisingly, my focus on this report, like the last few reports, was on whether residential construction jobs turned negative or not, whether manufacturing and temporary jobs continued on their downward trajectory, and whether the deceleration in job growth would be apparent. Some of the deceleration or decline...
Read More »Overdue Selection of Stuff from My In-Box
The Overdue Selection of Stuff from My In-Box. Some days are good at Angry Bear. Getting a background in how to run a Blog by myself at this time. Sometimes run out of ideas. Fortunately, I have good influx of articles hitting my In-Box daily. I recently cleaned out a couple of thousand emails going back a couple of years. Hoping Dan will get better and can join me. He was the brains and is the owner of Angry Bear. I just write or C&P . . ....
Read More »The last positive leading indicator, Revisions causes initial claims to capitulate
Revisions cause initial claims, the last positive leading indicator, to capitulate – by New Deal democrat Initial and continuing claims underwent some serious revisions with this week’s release. Rather than attempt an explanation myself, here is the nub of the BLS’s own explanation: Beginning … [this week], the methodology used to seasonally adjust the national initial claims and continued claims reflects a change in the estimation of the...
Read More »Stand Aside Millennials, Baby Boomer homebuying bonanza
Except for the beginning, mostly a copy and paste here. Housing is an issue in the U.S. There are not many appropriately priced house being built or used ones on the market. The same holds true for apartments. We have a lot of young families trying to figure out where to live. Then once they decide, they can not find the necessary housing much less the pricing they can afford. Now, I said it twice. Do you get the picture? The author has described...
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