Tag Archives: US EConomics

JOLTS and jobless claims: the labor market remains a strong positive  – by New Deal democrat The message from the JOLTS report for December yesterday and jobless claims for last week today is that the labor market remains the strongest sector of the economy, with plenty of unfilled job openings, and almost no layoffs. Initial jobless claims last week declined -3,000 to 183,000, and the 4 week moving average declined -5,750 to 191,750. Both...

Editorial by EMPLOY AMERICA on The Fed Chair’s 25bp hike which are aligning with the Fed’s consensus and market beliefs and Powell’s expectations of continuing inflation risks. Gotta make sure the chance of inflation is really dead. Poking at it with 25bp hike now, making sure it is dead, and two more rounds of the same in the near future. Good take by Skanda Amarnath of EMPLOY AMERICA on Fed Chair Powell’s beliefs. Skanda’s belief is the...

January manufacturing at recessionary levels; December construction spending also declines  – by New Deal democrat The first data for the month of January is in, and with one exception, it is pretty bad. The ISM manufacturing index declined -1.0 to 47.4. According to the ISM, 48 is the cutoff below which is more consistent with a recession. Even worse, the new orders subindex cratered, falling 2.6 to 42.5: Going back 75 years, the *only*...

Mixed Bag Today. Police Actions are making the news. Not just on the street. Major story is police beating a man to death. It was very discouraging to read this. Cop City being built and one protestor dead. Oklahoma prison murdering imprisoned prisoners. Talked with a Police Captain the other day. He was insisting he be called captain. Should I have angered him and insist I be called Sergeant USMC. I had a Communications platoon reporting to me....

California holds out as Arizona, other states submit Colorado River plan, ktar.com, KTAR FLAGSTAFF, Ariz. (AP) — Six Western states that rely on water from the Colorado River have agreed on a model to dramatically cut water use in the basin, months after the federal government called for action and an initial deadline passed. With the largest allocation of water from the river, California is the lone holdout. Officials said the state would...

House price indexes for November: up like a rocket, down like a feather  – by New Deal democrat As I’ve repeated many times in the past 10 years, in housing prices follow sales with a lag. Housing permits peaked at the beginning of 2022, and starts followed several months later.  This morning the FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes for November showed continued declines from their seasonally adjusted June 2022 peak, and also continued...

In the real world, if someone spends more money than they make, they run a deficit. Income – Spending = Deficit. Accumulatively, deficits become debt. In order to avoid the accumulation of debt; they need to either reduce spending, increase income, or both; a lessening of income would require a reduction in spending, an increase in spending would beg an increase in income, and so forth. Governmentally, spending stays spending and income becomes...

What to watch most for in this Friday’s jobs report  – by New Deal democrat After a two week drought, this week a plethora of economic stats get reported. Most importantly for my purposes that includes house prices, construction spending, the ISM manufacturing report, and of course on Friday nonfarm payrolls. Speaking of which, 3 of the 5 short leading indicators that haven’t rolled over yet are included in the jobs report – construction and...

No More Noma Eating is a necessity and can be a great pleasure.  It also has a symbolic dimension in every culture.  In the long history of European civilization, going back at least to the Romans, it has been a form of status distinction, allowing the elites at the top to display their separation from the masses below. For many centuries elite food was set apart by its ingredients, like caviar, choice cuts of meat, difficult to procure spices...

The 2nd that is. If there was ever anything that cried out for a cost-benefit analysis it is surely the more recent Supreme Court interpretations of our ‘Second Amendment Rights’. On The Benefit Side: The right to protect our family and selves at all times and in all places from all dangers both real and imagined with deadly force. The right to experience any pleasure one might get from firing automatic and semi-automatic weapons...