Tag Archives: US EConomics

Lackluster spending, a decline in real income and savings in March; when the house price spiral turns, consumers are in real trouble In March nominal personal income rose 0.5%, and spending rose 1.1%. But since the personal consumption deflator, i.e., the relevant measure of inflation, rose 0.9%, real income declined -0.4%, and real personal spending rose only +0.2%. While both real income and spending are well above their pre-pandemic...

Q1 GDP negative; but more importantly, two of three long leading indicators have deteriorated First things first: yes, it was a negative GDP print. No, it doesn’t necessarily mean recession. I’ve been expecting weakness to show up by now ever since last summer; so here it is.But the big culprits were non-core items. Personal consumption expenditures, even adjusted for inflation, were positive. The three big negatives were a big decline in...

What happens when the USPS decides to close a Post Office? The closure does not happen over night. A Post Office may close immediately due to an emergency, a suspended lease, less business over time, etc. In any case the USPS follows up. This post by Steve Hutkins is a review of the process and where the USPS is with regard is suspended Post Offices. ________ Lost in Limbo: Post Offices Under Suspension – Save the Post Office, Steve Hutkins...

Jobless claims: yet another 50+ year low in continuing claims [Programming note: I’ll comment on the Q1 GDP report later]. Initial jobless claims declined -5,000 to 180,000, but above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average rose 2,250 to 179,250, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 set three weeks ago. Continuing claims declined -1,000 to 1,407,000, yet another new 50 year low (but still well above their...

If anyone ever knew, it might have been Wilbur. But Wilbur got caught chasing Fanne in the park late one night. Then, too, he died a long time ago. So, “What would Wilbur do?,” is not an option. Even if it were, Wilbur might not have even ever asked ‘how should it be’; only knew a lot about ‘how it is’. Elizabeth knows a lot. Maybe more. Smart as hell. Cares a lot. Could be a big help. Other than that, it’s slim pickens and tax cuts. Never was nor...

Prices soar, sales drop; oh by the way, sales lead prices New home sales declined -8.6% in March, which isn’t as sharp as it seems since declines of this magnitude happen 2-3x/year. The series is also heavily revised, so no new month’s number should be given too much weight. On the other hand, new home sales are frequently the first series to decline after a peak, so the fact that they have not made a new high since January of last year, and...

Lessons for the present from the Postwar Boom One of the things I harp on from time to time is that from 1932 to 1956 there was never a yield curve inversion, and yet recessions certainly did happen! Too many modern models get hung up on Fed intervention. But what happens when the Fed doesn’t intervene, as was the case for that 25 year period? Or is perhaps the case now, with the Fed funds rate at record levels below the inflation rate?...

Channeling Great Grandfather Mayer May Mayer May was born in Bavaria in 1848 and immigrated to the United States in 1869 when he was 21 years old. Bavaria had universal military conscription at age 21. I was born in 1948 and immigrated to Canada in 1967 to resist the draft. Over the years, I have experienced intense fascination regarding certain topics. For example, in the early eighties, I was intrigued by the story of Moses at Mount Sinai and...

This is mostly a C&P with editing involved. Taken from Altarum Health Sector Economic Indicators, and “Insights from Monthly National Health Spending Data through December 2021.” I have added the link Altarum to return to the original article. Without the additional government spending covering Covid costs and a recession during 2020 -2021, overall healthcare spending would have been higher. The nation is also having one Covid issue which...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for April 18 – 22 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While I was writing about mortgage rates during the week, the yield curve did some re-tightening, enough to make a difference in the long term forecast. As usual, clicking over and reading should help bring you up to the virtual minute as to the nowcast and forecast for the economy, and help me pay for some nice...