Tag Archives: US EConomics

New home sales continue to fall sharply, while prices for both new and existing homes continues to increase sharply New home sales declined further in June to 590,000 annualized and May was revised sharply lower as well: This was the lowest number since the pandemic lockdown month of April 2020, and before that since December 2018. It is also over 40% lower than the peak reading of 1.036 sales annualized in August 2020. This is absolutely...

“Who got rich off the student debt crisis?” – Reveal (revealnews.org), James B. Steele and Lance Williams A bit of a story of how we got to this student loan debt debacle. It is long, tedious, and not exciting. And this is only part of it. In 2016, 42 million people were owing $1.3 trillion in student debt. It is or was a profit center for Wall Street and also the government. I suspect Wall Street still gets its cut from student loans. Their...

Weekly Indicators for July 18 – 22 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat I wasn’t able to get to this link yesterday, but my Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The situation with the leading indicators continues to ever so slowly deteriorate. But there is some good news as well, as gas prices continued to decline precipitously from their peak. As usual, clicking over and reading should be educational for you, and slightly...

“Ford Plans to Gut Workforce, Cut Thousands” – 24/7 Wall St. (247wallst.com), Douglas A. McIntyre Gasoline or electric is the question for product. Ford could take a gradual change to electric from gasoline. It does not appear to be in the cards for Ford CEO Jim Farley. The Ford CEO wants to get a jump on technology and be a leader in improving the environment improve Ford margins according to “24/7 Wall St. And they are going to do this how? Ford...

Increasing trend in jobless claims continues; on track to give recession warning in November Initial jobless claims rose another 7,000 to 251,000 last week, an 8 month high. The 4 week average rose 4,500 to 240,500, a 7+ month high.  And continuing claims also rose 51,000 to 1,384,000, which is 78,000 above their 50 year low set on May 21: Three weeks ago I noted that reviewing the entire 50+ year history of initial claims, “there are almost...

We are firmly into an ENSO phase in the United States that could be regarded as the essence of the word dire. Milestones in Texas the past two weeks from a drought, weather, and a livestock production perspective are coming fast and often. Largely throughout the entire west – it’s hot, dry, and uncomfortable, both from a producer perspective but also as a common person, and more so for livestock out on the range with very little way of seeking...

Existing home sales now down 25% from peak; but price increases keep steamrolling on Although existing home sales are less economically important than new home sales, what has been happening with their prices, given the experience of the housing bubble and bust 15 years ago, is of added importance. The simple summary is that sales have declined precipitously, while price appreciation keeps stubbornly rolling on due to (still!) a severe lack of...

Sharp downturn in June housing starts confirms earlier negative signals from permits, sales, and mortgage applications For the last few months, I have highlighted the record number of housing units that had permits but had not yet been started, pointing out that it distorts the economic signal. Last month I closed with the statement: “The conundrum is whether the 50-year high backlog in units not yet started will delay the downturn until it...

A note on inflation and whether the Fed should continue to raise rates – and whether it is “behind the curve” No important economic releases today (july 18), and almost no reporting by States as to COVID counts over the weekend, so let’s back up and take a look at something that’s been simmering on my intellectual back stove, so to speak: should the Fed be raising rates to combat this inflation? Has inflation already peaked? Or is the Fed way...

June industrial production: second sharp monthly decline in manufacturing  – by New Deal democrat Industrial production declined -0.2% in June, and May was revised downward to unchanged. Even worse, manufacturing production declined -0.5% in June, and May was revised downward to -0.5% as well: This corresponds to the sharp deterioration in the regional Fed new orders indexes, and the ISM manufacturing new orders index we have seen during...