Tag Archives: US EConomics

Housing under construction continues to levitate  – by New Deal democrat Although they aren’t the most leading of housing metrics, because of supply-chain issues during the pandemic, housing units under construction has been the most important one, because they represent the actual economic activity of construction. With the exception of 2001, which was an investment-led downturn, they also have always turned down significantly before a...

Have wages “really” increased since before the pandemic?  – by New Deal democrat All of the remaining 2023 data – housing sales and construction, and personal income and spending, as well as the Index of Leading Indicators – will be reported this week. After Christmas, only initial claims will be reported next week. Today there is no significant data. But over the weekend, a little tiff erupted on another site that I read, about whether real...

Bruce Webb introduced the Social Security Northwest Plan in 2009.  He credited Arne and Dale as co-authors.  The NW Plan only increases payroll taxes if increases are needed.  For years before 2009 Bruce had confidence that forecasts were too pessimistic, but he was convinced by Arne to consider a plan that included triggers.  Arne’s solution was overly complicated, but Dale Coberly showed that a permanent solution could be had by simply increasing...

Dale Coberly discusses an article written by Andrew Biggs “No, Social Security Isn’t ‘Earned’,” WSJ [Dear reader: this is very long. It had to be to refute all the claims made by the author of the WSJ op ed.  You don’t have to read it if you don’t want to, or all of it, or all in one sitting.  But I hope it will help you understand the truth about how Social Security works.] I read an article the other day [December 8] in the Wall Street...

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The big decline in long term interest rates this week in the wake of the Fed’s announced “pivot” towards lowering rates created one of the biggest changes in the long leading indicators for several years. Meanwhile most of the coincident indicators continue to speak of a strong economy. The intersection that is going to tell the tale going forward in the next 6...

Industrial production remains below late 2022 peak even after end of UAW strike  – by New Deal democrat Industrial production historically has been the King of Coincident Indicators, turning up and down at the onset and end of recessions in the past. But as I wrote last month there are signs that has changed in the past 20+ years since China was admitted to normal trade relationships with the US. Because manufacturing is a much smaller share of...

Real retail sales mildly positive, but still suggest further deceleration in job gains  – by New Deal democrat Before proceeding further, I should mention – and should have mentioned as to jobless claims – that we are in that part of the year where seasonality often wreaks havoc, so outsized gains or losses should be taken with a grain of salt. This is particularly true as to YoY comparisons of retail claims, because last year November and...

Jobless claims: good news all around  – by New Deal democrat This was one of the best weeks as to jobless claims all year. Initial claims declined -17,000 to 202,000, a tie for the 2nd lowest number in 10 months. The four week average declined -7,750 to 213,250. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims rose 20,000 to 1.876 million: Even more importantly for forecasting purposes, the YoY% changes both for the weekly number and the...

Producer prices, “sticky” consumer prices – basically, everything except shelter show nearly complete abatement of inflation  – by New Deal democrat The producer price index released this morning for November is yet further confirmation that inflation ex-shelter is simply not in the pipeline. Both total and core PPI were unchanged for the month. Both commodities (blue) and finished goods (red) declined by another -0.5%, as shown in the below...

If the throughput of product remains the same or increases, why wouldn’t a 4-day labor week be allowed? If more output is required, another shift can be started on the fifth day. Tom Walker has discussed such utilization of production labor to gain greater productivity. There is no loss of money to the company. Labor is happier with a system allowing more free time off. “Four Days a Week: This Labor Day, Let’s Talk About Laboring Less,”...