Tag Archives: US EConomics

Consumption leads jobs: a comprehensive update  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I encountered a post on Seeking Alpha from the chief economist for a major trading platform, who probably makes in a week the amount I pocket in an entire year from my writing, who wrote: “if one loses one’s job, one likely spends less. If one witnesses colleagues lose their jobs, one may cut back on spending. If extended family members lose their jobs,...

The long leading forecast through year end 2023 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat Normally in late January I update my top-line long leading forecast for the entire year. A little late this year, it is now up at Seeking Alpha. If you follow my updates on the leading indicators, the result isn’t very surprising. The twist is that recessions are almost always much shorter than expansions, so the long leading indicators turn up on a...

Existing home sales and prices decline further, BUT . . .  – by New Deal democrat Even though existing home sales make up about 90% of the total market, they have much less economic impact than new home construction. They are best used to confirm trends. In January they continued to confirm that sales have continued to decline, and prices, which follow sales with a lag, have joined in. January sales declined another -0.7% to 4.2 million...

Weekly Indicators for February 13 – 17 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There are two trends percolating under the surface. One trend is the continued slow decaying of growth in the coincident indicators. The other is the slow move towards turning neutral or positive among some of the long and even short leading indicators. No forecast at this point, but I am beginning to suspect...

Calculated Risk: MBA: “Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2022” calculatedriskblog.com, Bill McBride by Calculated Risk on 2/16/2023 01:42:00 PM From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2022 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.96 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of...

This is a long one and a C&P. Other than putting it up at Angry Bear, I can not take credit for this one. What I can say is . . . they are not the first ones to accuse Supply Chain for much of the inflationary issues we have had as a nation. In 2008, automotive cut production and did not maintain orders with the supply base. When it started back up, we were chasing semiconductors, etc. Lead-times doubled. We have just gone through similar....

Real average wages and real aggregate payrolls for nonsupervisory workers through January  – by New Deal democrat With no new data today, to close out the week let’s update real average wages and aggregate payrolls for nonsupervisory workers. This is the best way, based on monthly data, to see how average Americans are doing financially. While average nonsupervisory wages increased 0.2% in January, consumer inflation increased more, at 0.5%,...

The President, Joe Biden, talking about the economy. In many ways, he made the right moves in protecting us from a reoccurrence of a similar 2008 event. This came after WallStreet blew up the economy by gambling, could not ante up, and government did not put enough on the table to rescue the economy. Main Street paid . . . February 15, 2023, Letters from an American, Prof. Heather Cox Richardson President Joe Biden hit the road today to...

Slight decline in housing construction: the negative actual economic impact has not yet begun  – by New Deal democrat Housing permits (gold) increased slightly in January from their December lows, while the more volatile housing starts (blue) declined again. The much less volatile single family permits (red, right scale) also declined again to a new post-pandemic low: This is a very important long leading indicator, and shows that coming...

Initial claims: nobody is getting laid off, but slight weakness in continuing claims compared with 2022  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims remained below 200,000 at 195,000, while the 4 week average increased very slightly to 189,500. Continuing claims increased to 1,696,000, the third highest number in over a year: Holiday seasonality has ended. It continues to be the case that almost nobody is getting laid off. Very slightly on the...