Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

September jobs report: excellent in coincident and lagging sectors, cautionary in leading sectors HEADLINES: +136,000 jobs added (+135,000 ex-Census) U3 unemployment rate declined -0.2% from 3.7% to 3.5% (NEW LOW) U6 underemployment rate declined -0.3% from 7.2% to 6.9% (NEW LOW) Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession I am highlighting these because many leading indicators overall strongly suggest that an employment slowdown is coming....

Once again, two sharply contrasting reports to start the month One month ago, I wrote that the first reports in September, construction spending and the ISM manufacturing index, showed two contrasting views of the economy. That was again the case today. As in last month, residential construction spending increased for the month. Below I show it in comparison with single family permits: Typically construction follows permits. In the past few years, it...

Expect a weak report for the leading jobs sectors on Friday September motor vehicle sales will be reported later today, after the domestic US manufacturers post their numbers. Sales of all other vehicles were down -13% YoY, but that is without seasonal adjustment including for Labor Day, so the seasonally adjusted sales might tell a completely different story. In the meantime, with an eye towards Friday’s jobs report, let’s take a look at what is...

Peoples’ Republic of China Reaches Age 70 While most US media  claims China (PRC) has the world’s second largest economy, that is only true as measured in nominal terms.  Measured in real PPP terms, Chinese GDP surpassed that of the US in 2015 and continees to move further ahead of it (and is likely to pass it in nominal terms very soon), despite gradual deceleration of the Chinese GDP growth rate.  Furthermore, PRC seems to be taking global leadership...

First-ever binding end to a border war: Missouri-Kansas UPDATED (Dan here late….August 2 post) Kansas Governor Laura Kelly has just signed an executive order that prohibits state subsidies being used to move existing Missouri firms in four Missouri counties to three Kansas counties, which together make up the Kansas City metropolitan area. Unlike previous voluntary no-raiding deals, such as NY-NJ-CT, Council of Great Lakes Governors, and even Australia’s...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for September 23 – 27 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. If you’re wondering why it’s so late, it’s because SA pretty much shut down between Friday afternoon and this morning. Anyway, recession risks are rapidly receding, at least through the 4th Quarter.  As usual, clicking over and reading puts a little jingle in my pocket, as well as brining you up to the moment on the economy....

The New US-Japan Trade Agreement Lost in the shuffle this past week was one piece of good news for Trump: a tentative trade deal with Japan that he and Japan’s PM Shinzō Abe signed in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting.  While it is largely a favorable deal, it does not do too much and leaves the most difficult issue to be resolved by later negotiation, namely regarding the auto industry. Trade restrictions are lowered on a...

Personal spending shows consumers OK; durable goods shows producers still struggling This morning’s reports on personal income and spending continue to show a consumer that is doing alright. Meanwhile durable goods orders continue to show a production sector that is struggling. First, real personal income (red in the graph below) rose +0.4% in August, while real personal spending rose +0.1%. Since July spending (blue) was revised down -0.1%, the result...

Initial jobless claims continue near expansion lows I’ve been monitoring initial jobless claims closely for the past several months, to see if there are any signs of stress. This is because the long leading indicators were negative one year ago, and many – but not a majority – of the short leading indicators have recently turned negative as well. So I have been on “recession watch.” But no recession is going to begin unless and until layoffs increase. To...

August new home sales continue rebounding trend Let me start out my look at this morning’s August new home sales report with my typical housing mantra: Interest rates lead sales Sales lead prices Prices lead inventory We saw all of that in this morning’s report. First, the trend of rising single family sales continues, and the three month average of this very volatile series (blue), shown in comparison with single family housing permits  was the...