Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

Some good news on workers’ wages There was some good news the other morning about workers wages. The quarterly employment cost index showed a q/q increase of +0.9% for wages (red in the graph below), and +0.8% for overall compensations (blue) (which includes things like medical benefits). Nominal YoY increases were +3.0% and 2.8%, respectively: Unlike “average hourly earnings” (green in the graph above), which are reported monthly as part of the jobs...

by Joseph Joyce The 2018 Globie: “Crashed” Each year I choose a book to be the Globalization Book of the Year, i.e., the “Globie”. The prize is strictly honorific and does not come with a check. But I do like to single out books that are particularly insightful about some aspect of globalization.  Previous winners are listed at the bottom. This year’s choice is Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World by Adam Tooze of Yale...

by New Deal democrat Housing has peaked* *(unless the Fed lowers interest rates)My comprehensive look at September housing data is up at Seeking Alpha. The downtrend in housing statistics has been sustained and severe enough for me to make the call that housing has peaked, by most measures, between last November and this past March. This does not mean that I am calling for a recession at this time. But it does mean that this long leading indicator is...

I made a mistake. And it’s a good thing. Following up on my Running on Empty post, I wanted to give a more finely-grained analysis of climate costs relative to GDP growth, so I returned to my sources to see who their sources were and how they did their calculations. Watson et al., compiled their estimate from National Centers for Environmental Information, “U.S. Billion Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters” and Paulina Jaramillo and Nicholas Muller, “Air...

The Housing Affordability Crisis This morning both the Case-Shiller House Price Indexes for September, and Third Quarter Median Asking Rent were reported, as was the rental vacancy rate.  Together they reveal that all types of shelter costs, whether housing or apartments, are at or near record levels. The Case Shiller 20 City index was reported up 5.5% YoY, and the National Index was up 5.8% YoY. Meanwhile median household income, as reported by Sentier...

A little over a year ago, Robert Watson, former chair of the IPCC, and two co-authors published a report titled “The Economic Case for Climate Action in the United States.” Based on trends over the past few decades, the authors estimated the current total annual cost in the U.S. of losses from weather events intensified by climate change and health damage from fossil fuel pollution to be $240 billion, which they described as “about 40 percent of current...

Setting a baseline for a manufacturing slowdown If I am right that by roughly midyear 2019 the economy will experience a substantial slowdown, then we ought to start seeing a deceleration in the leading indicators for manufacturing soon. Additionally, if rail transportation is accurately signaling that a slowdown is already hitting due to the impact of Trump’s tariffs and China’s retaliation, producers ought to be noticing the effects almost immediately,...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for October 22 – 26 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Weakness, which had been confined to the long leading indicators, is now showing up in some of the short leading indicators as well. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs look like they are taking an immediate bite out of economic activity. In other words, all of that front-running that boosted inventory accumulation that showed up in Q3 GDP...

Failed Perceptions Of Economic Reality It is long  viewed that what the electoral populace thinks of the state of the economy is an important factor in how they vote and electoral outcomes.  Prior to 2000 the state of the economy as measured by real per capita  GDP growth explained presidential election outcomes except in cases where there was a war (!940) or there was a party split (1912).  Personal scandals also played roles, with Ford’s defeat in...

by New Deal democrat Q3 2018 update: “Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator” One of the methods I incorporate into my long leading indicators is the “Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator.” This is something I first read about in 2007, when the eponymous Paul Kasriel, then of Northern Trust and now of Legacy Private Trust Co., wrote that it forecast a recession within the next year. Needless to say, his call was on the mark! The indicator consists of a...