Tag Archives: Economic Releases

It will take another few months to know if this is just ‘noise’ or it’s about to go negative. If you average the last two months, for example, it’s about 165,000 each: Highlights Averaging extremes is good advice to find an underlying path and February and January payrolls are an immediate example. Nonfarm payrolls rose by only 20,000 last month vs a revised 311,000 rise in January with the average at a very healthy 166,000. Payrolls are part of the establishment survey of...

Downward revisions for q4 GDP. And not how both imports and exports are down for the last 6 months or so as global trade decelerates: Highlights Revision estimates for fourth-quarter GDP will be coming down following an unexpectedly deep $59.8 billion trade deficit in December. Not helping the quarterly deficit are downward revisions to November and October that deepened the net deficit in those two months by $1.6 billion. The trouble is equally severe on both sides of the...

Bad. All sectors decelerating and residential looking down year over year: U.S. auto sales tumbled 2.8 percent in February (Detroit News) Overall sales for the month tumbled 2.8 percent from the same month a year ago, according to Edmunds.com. Sales came in at 1.26 million for an annualized industry sales rate slowed to 16.6 million. The estimated average transaction price for a new vehicle in February climbed to $36,590, according to Kelley Blue Book. That was $993...

Well done Professor Kelton! Stephanie Kelton explains Modern Monetary Theory This is particularly ridiculous: U.S. offers up to 6 million barrels of oil from emergency reserve (Reuters) The U.S. Energy Department said on Thursday it is offering up to six million barrels of sweet crude oil from the national emergency reserve in a sale mandated by a previous law to raise funds to modernize the facility. A law U.S. President Donald Trump signed last year requires the department...

Can’t be making Tariff Man happy: Highlights The effects of cross-border trade actions have been difficult to pinpoint in the national economic data but outlines may be appearing in goods trade. The nation’s goods deficit swelled to a much larger-than-expected $79.5 billion in December as exports fell 2.8 percent in the month to $135.7 billion following 0.9 percent contraction in November. Agricultural exports, a focused area with China, fell 1.9 percent in the month and are...

Chinese state company defaults offshore, first time in 20 years (FT) A Chinese state-owned enterprise from the country’s remote north-west has failed to repay a US dollar bond in Hong Kong, the first offshore default in 20 years and the latest sign investors can no longer rely on Chinese authorities to bail out state groups. Qinghai Provincial Investment Group defaulted on a $10.9m interest payment due on the Hong Kong note on Friday, then missed a separate principal and...

The notion behind what is called “Modern Monetary Theory,” or MMT, is that as long as the Fed can keep interest rates low without sparking inflation, the national debt and budget deficit won’t be an issue. MMT has been espoused by politicians including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Powell conceded that he has not read up on the theory but said he has heard some “pretty extreme claims” about how it...

Japan downgrades industrial outlook for first time in 40 months (Nikkei) The Japanese government on Thursday downgraded its monthly assessment of industrial output for the first time in more than three years. The Cabinet Office’s economic report for February says “weakness can be seen in some areas” of production, qualifying a view of moderate growth that had been kept unchanged since October 2015. February’s report also downgraded the assessment on corporate profits. It...

Asia’s exports to China plunge as economy stumbles (WSJ) Japan’s exports to China in January sank 17.4% on the year to 958.1 billion yen ($8.65 billion), accelerating from December’s 7% drop. South Korean exports to China in January slid 19% on the year, a steeper rate than in the previous two months of decline. Taiwan’s mainland-bound shipments, which make up 40% of its total, also fell for the third consecutive month in January by 7.5%. Singapore suffered a 25% plunge....

Tariff man, aka Agent Orange, doing a number on global economies… Just went negative: Services moved up some but the trend still looks down: Japan appearing to be collapsing as well: And these recent headlines: Argentina Leading Economic Index The economy of Argentina shrank 0.1 percent month-over-month in January 2019, following a 0.3 percent contraction in the previous month. It is the eleventh consecutive decrease in economic activity but the softest since a mild 0.2...