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Tag Archives: Uncategorized

Existing home sales, Chicago Fed, Florida claims

The housing depression continues: Existing Home SalesHighlightsHousing demand continues to soften with existing home sales down a surprising 7.1 percent in February to a 5.080 million annualized rate. This is much lower than expected and well below Econoday’s low estimate for 5.200 million and is the second lowest rate since February last year. The report is weak throughout with single-family sales down 7.2 percent, at 4.510 million, and condos down 6.6 percent at 570,000. All regions show...

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My WRKO interview today, Consumer Sentiment, Rail traffic, Fed’s Bullard on rates

WRKO Interview Still drifting lower: US Consumer Sentiment at 5-Month LowThe University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment for the United States came in at 90 in March of 2016 from 91.7 in the previous month and hitting its lowest reading since October 2015, as both future expectations and current conditions deteriorated sharply. Markets were expecting the index to rise to 92.2. Rail Week Ending 12 March 2016: Rail Returns To Its Slide Into The Abyss Week 10 of 2016 shows same week total...

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Philly Fed, Norway, Current account, JOLTS, Euro

A nice positive print that hopefully signals a turn around, but I need to see at least one more before taking it seriously, as volatility is common with this series:More negative than expected means a downward adjustment for GDP, as do downward revisions of prior prints: Current AccountHighlightsThe nation’s current account deficit narrowed in the fourth quarter to $125.3 billion from a revised third-quarter deficit of $129.9 billion. The improvement reflects a smaller trade deficit for...

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Mr Osborne and the economists’ advice

From the March 2016 Preface to The Economic Consequences of Mr Osborne By Ann Pettifor, Professor Victoria Chick and Geoff Tily  … when sustained, fiscal consolidation increases rather than reduces the public debt ratio and is in general associated with adverse macroeconomic conditions.  ‘Economic Consequences of Mr Osborne’, June 2010 Having missed the genuine threat of the private debt bubble, the economics profession misread disastrously the increase in public debt. In their 2009 This Time...

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The boom, not the slump, is the time for austerity – Guardian Letters

The following is a letter by Professor John Weeks and Ann Pettifor, published today, 15th March 2016 in The Guardian.  Andrew Harrop’s article on John McDonnell’s public borrowing for investment points out its improvement on the chancellor’s deficit obsession (John McDonnell’s new fiscal rule is strong, but it’s no election winner, theguardian.com, 11 March). Of particular concern is George Osborne’s determination to “balance the books” by cutting current spending on the disabled. To...

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Rail traffic, Restaurant index, Import and export prices

Rail Week Ending 06 March 2016: Worse Than Last Week Week 9 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic continued to improve year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements but the weekly railcar counts remained in contraction. Relatively speaking, this week was worse than last week, and the improvement seen last week is fading. Up a bit in...

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Commercial real estate, Restaurant index

U.S. Commercial Property Prices Drop for First Time in Six Years By Kara WetzelMarch 7 (Bloomberg)Values fell 0.3% in January from prior month, Moody’s says.Decline is `significant milestone’ showing shift in sentimentU.S. commercial real estate prices dropped in January for the first time since 2010, a sign of weakening demand by investors after a six-year rally that pushed values to records.The Moody/RCA Commercial Property Price Index slipped 0.3 percent from December, Moody’s Investors...

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NFIB index, Redbook retail sales

Tough to give this a positive spin… And note the downward slope of the chart, as weakness continues to spread from oil capex to the rest of the economy: NFIB Small Business Optimism IndexHighlightsThe small business optimism index slipped 1 point in February to 92.9, a 2-year low that reflects incremental declines across six of 10 components. The report’s two employment components both inched 1 point lower with plans to increase employment still at a positive reading of 10 and job openings...

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Consumer Credit, Lumber prices, Inventories

Another weak number, and the series was revised as well. And for GDP to grow the same as last year, all the ‘pieces’ have to grow the same, and this one isn’t keeping up: Consumer CreditHighlightsBreaks in the consumer credit series, due to changes in source data or methodology, are not uncommon, leading to sudden swings such as in mid-2011. Such a break is responsible for a big revision to December, now at a revised increase of $6.4 billion from an initial $21.3 billion. The revision is...

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Threat of a synchronised downturn & G20 Finance Ministers’ complacency

OECD secretary general Jose Angel Gurria, US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen and British chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne chat during a G20 photocall. Photograph: Rolex Dela Pena/AFP/Getty Images “For the proposition that supply creates its own demand, I shallsubstitute the proposition that expenditure  creates  its  own income”   JM Keynes Collected Writings, Volume  XXIX,  p.  81 G20 Finance Ministers met in Huangzhou, China recently and refused appeals from both the IMF and...

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