Tag Archives: Uncategorized

Not good. Raises the specter of May having weakened after some April numbers were looking a bit better: Empire State Mfg SurveyHighlightsWhat little momentum there was in the New York manufacturing sector is fizzling, based on the Empire State index which came in much weaker-than-expected, at minus 9.02 in the May report to end two lonely looking gains in April and March.New orders are at minus 5.54, also ending two prior months of gains and rejoining a long run of negative readings going...

Weak U.S. tax receipts suggest things are not so good for the U.S. consumer even as employment continues to grow, Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist Joseph LaVorgna said Monday.The three-month moving average for U.S. jobs gains remains “good” at around 200,000 positions per month, but growth in tax receipts has fallen from about 6 percent a year ago to 3 percent today, LaVorgna said.”That tells me income growth is a lot weaker than what official numbers show, which would explain why...

Better than expected and some upward revisions as well. Retail SalesHighlightsThe consumer snapped back to life in April, driving retail sales 1.3 percent higher to beat Econoday’s consensus by 4 tenths and the high estimate by 1 tenth. Gains are spread throughout most of the report.Autos are the key component, up a sharp 3.2 percent to reverse the prior month’s decline. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.8 percent.Sales at gasoline stations, boosted by higher prices, also contributed...

Check out the second chart: 2016 Q1 call report data is available at BankRegData.com. Industry wide assets leapt to $16.293 Trillion adding an amazing $325.59 Billion (2.04%) in the 1st Quarter.The $325.59 Billion increase is the largest since (you guessed it) the $337.96 Billion jump in 2008 Q1 – a span of 32 quarters.What’s even more amazing is that the 1.24% would really be 1.28% if C&I lending had stayed flat. The jump to 1.24% was actually lower than it should have been due to the...

More evidence global demand is slowing as both exports and imports fell. In any case the trade surplus continues, providing fundamental currency strength which probably translates into continuing fx reserve builds: China’s exports drop again in April; imports also plungeHighlightsEmployment has been the economy’s central strength but has not been in the positive column for the labor market conditions index which remains in contraction for a 4th straight month, at minus 0.9 in April. Still,...

The chart shows the year over year and ongoing deceleration that in general began when oil capex collapsed. Nor will there be a reversal until after deficit spending increases- public or private- and I see no evidence of that happening: Employment SituationHighlightsAdd employment to those reports showing weakness, at least moderate weakness as nonfarm payrolls rose a lower-than-expected 160,000 in April. Revisions are minor, down a combined 19,000 in the two prior months with March now at...

The euro level is in dollar terms, but in any case, as previously discussed, the chart shows that there was an exit from the euro when the ECB initiated its aggressive interest rate and QE policies. And the way I see it it was that selling that weakened the euro, not anything ‘fundamental’: Rail Week Ending 30 April 2016: Rail Contracted 11.8 Percent From Same Month One Year Ago Week 17 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the...

As discussed back when the law was first proposed, this version of ‘moral hazard’ renders the entire program unworkable and to the best of my knowledge and understanding there is no ‘fix’: Health Insurers Struggle to Offset New Costs May 4 (WSJ) — Insurers have begun to propose big premium increases for coverage next year under the 2010 health law. The companies also have detailed the challenges in their Affordable Care Act business in a round of earnings releases. The health law instigated...

If true, the $1.10 increase in the differential for Asia is substantial. However the other, much smaller adjustments are not material, so it’s hard to say from this information whether or not this is a policy move designed to stabilize prices at current levels: (Bloomberg) — Saudi Aramco raised prices for most crude grades sold to Northwest Europe, Mediterranean next month while lowering prices for most grades it sells to U.S. Official pricing statement confirms increased prices for Asia...

Same story, depressed and growing too slowly to matter: MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsPurchase applications for home mortgages managed to rise 1.0 percent in the April 29 week, but refinancing continued to decline, down 6.0 percent after falling 5.0 percent in the prior week. Though purchase applications are 13 percent higher than the same week a year ago, the year-on-year gain has narrowed sharply from the 30 percent gains seen as recently as March. Rates crept slightly higher, with...