Tag Archives: US EConomics

First comments on Q2 GDP: no, we’re not in a recession (yet)  – by New Deal democrat When the negative print on Q1 GDP first came out three months ago, I wrote: “yes, it was a negative GDP print. No, it doesn’t necessarily mean recession…. But the big culprits were non-core items. Personal consumption expenditures, even adjusted for inflation, were positive. The three big negatives were a big decline in exports vs. imports, followed in about...

by Joseph Joyce The Increasing Debtor Status of the U.S. The Net International Investment Position (NIIP) of a country reflects the difference between foreign assets owned by domestic residents and domestic liabilities held by foreign residents. The difference, positive or negative, determines a country’s status as an international creditor or debtor. The U.S. position, which has been negative for many years, has deteriorated sharply in recent...

New home prices may have peaked after all – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote, “The median price of a new home increased 1.7% in June (not seasonally adjusted), and remained sharply higher YoY at 15.1%.” That’s true, but it wasn’t complete. The 15.1% figure is from the quarterly average. On a monthly basis, the YoY% change was 7.4%. Here are the monthly and quarterly figures together: The monthly change is not seasonally adjusted, so...

New home sales continue to fall sharply, while prices for both new and existing homes continues to increase sharply New home sales declined further in June to 590,000 annualized and May was revised sharply lower as well: This was the lowest number since the pandemic lockdown month of April 2020, and before that since December 2018. It is also over 40% lower than the peak reading of 1.036 sales annualized in August 2020. This is absolutely...

“Who got rich off the student debt crisis?” – Reveal (revealnews.org), James B. Steele and Lance Williams A bit of a story of how we got to this student loan debt debacle. It is long, tedious, and not exciting. And this is only part of it. In 2016, 42 million people were owing $1.3 trillion in student debt. It is or was a profit center for Wall Street and also the government. I suspect Wall Street still gets its cut from student loans. Their...

Weekly Indicators for July 18 – 22 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat I wasn’t able to get to this link yesterday, but my Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The situation with the leading indicators continues to ever so slowly deteriorate. But there is some good news as well, as gas prices continued to decline precipitously from their peak. As usual, clicking over and reading should be educational for you, and slightly...

“Ford Plans to Gut Workforce, Cut Thousands” – 24/7 Wall St. (247wallst.com), Douglas A. McIntyre Gasoline or electric is the question for product. Ford could take a gradual change to electric from gasoline. It does not appear to be in the cards for Ford CEO Jim Farley. The Ford CEO wants to get a jump on technology and be a leader in improving the environment improve Ford margins according to “24/7 Wall St. And they are going to do this how? Ford...

Increasing trend in jobless claims continues; on track to give recession warning in November Initial jobless claims rose another 7,000 to 251,000 last week, an 8 month high. The 4 week average rose 4,500 to 240,500, a 7+ month high.  And continuing claims also rose 51,000 to 1,384,000, which is 78,000 above their 50 year low set on May 21: Three weeks ago I noted that reviewing the entire 50+ year history of initial claims, “there are almost...

We are firmly into an ENSO phase in the United States that could be regarded as the essence of the word dire. Milestones in Texas the past two weeks from a drought, weather, and a livestock production perspective are coming fast and often. Largely throughout the entire west – it’s hot, dry, and uncomfortable, both from a producer perspective but also as a common person, and more so for livestock out on the range with very little way of seeking...

Existing home sales now down 25% from peak; but price increases keep steamrolling on Although existing home sales are less economically important than new home sales, what has been happening with their prices, given the experience of the housing bubble and bust 15 years ago, is of added importance. The simple summary is that sales have declined precipitously, while price appreciation keeps stubbornly rolling on due to (still!) a severe lack of...