Tag Archives: US EConomics

Sharp downturn in June housing starts confirms earlier negative signals from permits, sales, and mortgage applications For the last few months, I have highlighted the record number of housing units that had permits but had not yet been started, pointing out that it distorts the economic signal. Last month I closed with the statement: “The conundrum is whether the 50-year high backlog in units not yet started will delay the downturn until it...

A note on inflation and whether the Fed should continue to raise rates – and whether it is “behind the curve” No important economic releases today (july 18), and almost no reporting by States as to COVID counts over the weekend, so let’s back up and take a look at something that’s been simmering on my intellectual back stove, so to speak: should the Fed be raising rates to combat this inflation? Has inflation already peaked? Or is the Fed way...

June industrial production: second sharp monthly decline in manufacturing  – by New Deal democrat Industrial production declined -0.2% in June, and May was revised downward to unchanged. Even worse, manufacturing production declined -0.5% in June, and May was revised downward to -0.5% as well: This corresponds to the sharp deterioration in the regional Fed new orders indexes, and the ISM manufacturing new orders index we have seen during...

Real retail sales decline again slightly  – by New Deal democrat Nominal retail sales for the month of June rose 1.0%, and May was revised up by 0.2% from -0.3% to -0.1%. But since inflation was 1.3% in June and 1.0% in May, this makes the combined downturn in real retail sales -1.4% for the two months: YoY real retail sales is down -0.5%. In the past 75 years, a decline in real retail sales YoY has frequently – but not always – indicated a...

Weekly Indicators for July 11 – 15 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. We are at the point where I suspect that after the Q2 quarterly economic reports come out, and the Fed’s next meeting/rate hike, literally *all* of the long leading indicators will be negative. But, wait! There is a ray of sunshine still. Oil prices went back down under $100/barrel yesterday, equivalent to where...

June industrial production: second sharp monthly decline in manufacturing  – by New Deal democrat Industrial production declined -0.2% in June, and May was revised downward to unchanged. Even worse, manufacturing production declined -0.5% in June, and May was revised downward to -0.5% as well: This corresponds to the sharp deterioration in the regional Fed new orders indexes, and the ISM manufacturing new orders index we have seen during...

Jobless claims continue to trend higher, but no recession signal yet  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 9,000 to 244,000 last week, a 7.5 month high. The 4 week average rose 3,250 to 235,750, a 7 month high.  But the news wasn’t all negative, as continuing claims declined 41,000 to 1,331,000, which is only 25,000 above their 50 year low set on May 21: Two weeks ago I noted that reviewing the entire 50+ year history of...

Wikipedia offers an excellent synopsis of Regulatory Capture. In her book, Media Capture, Anya Schiffrin does so for Media Capture. In 1971, soon-to-be Associate Justice Lewis Powell Jr., then a corporate lawyer, wrote a memorandum to his friend Eugene B. Sydnor, Jr., Chair of the Education Committee of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce titled Attack On American Free Enterprise System. To his mind, the status quo, which he called The American Free...

Aggregate hours and payrolls of nonsupervisory workers and the onset of recessions An important reason I focus on whether or not the economy is heading into recession is that during recessions income and jobs both decline for the middle and working classes as a whole. In that regard, Jared Bernstein, a member of Biden’s Council of Economic Advisors, posted two graphs over the weekend contra the panic about a potential negative Q2 GDP reading. ...

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