Tag Archives: US EConomics

JAMA Network “How Do Commercial Insurance Plans Fare Under Proposed Prescription Drug Price Regulation?” Rena M. Conti, Richard G. Frank, Len M. Nichols December 2021, this article came out detailing Medicare negotiating directly with pharmaceutical companies and the impact of the negotiation on people insured by commercial plans. That is if commercial insurance plans were included in the price reductions given to Medicare. We are going to see how...

Jobless claims: once again, a relentless uptrend I feel like a broken record at this point, as every week the trend seems more and more relentless. Initial jobless claims rose once again, by 14,000 (seriously revised down by 12,000 from last week’s reading of 260,000) to 262,000. More importantly, the 4 week average rose another 4,500 as well to 252,000, a (revised) 8 month high.  Continuing claims also rose 8,000 to 1,428,000, the highest...

The world economy is undergoing extreme changes that have been both generational as well as exacerbated by lack of investment, global pandemic and supply chain crunch. Logistical nightmare aside, the generational shift from the prosperity of the Baby Boomer generation in the West as well as the great readjustment in China post Mao and the post-Soviet boom of Russian Millennials have been long coming, but underforecast or appreciated. Turn of the...

Just some ramblings of mine after looking at numbers . . . . Immigration, Population Replacement, Politics, and the Economy are what comes together to ensure national growth. I am going to talk each in no particular order to answer my own questions that come up from time to time. Voting patterns continue to change. I started to track three states only because of 2016. I was nosey to see if they were radical in changes. They are not and the...

July consumer inflation: a tale of two disparate trends  – by New Deal democrat Consumer prices were unchanged in July, as two very disparate trends canceled out one another. YoY prices increased 8.5%, below June’s multi-decade record of 9.0%: The two disparate trends are shown in the below bar graph of monthly changes since the end of last year. On the one hand, energy prices (red) declined -4.6% in July; but owner’s equivalent rent (gold)...

Coronavirus dashboard for August 9: BA.5 dominant, with a slow waning; a model for endemicity  – by New Deal democrat  BIobot’s most recent update, through last week, shows a decline of 15% of COVID in wastewater, consistent with about 460,000 “real” new infections per day: All 4 Census regions (not shown) are participating in the decline. Confirmed cases (dotted line below) have declined by a roughly similar percent, to 105,500....

Weekly Indicators for August 1 – 5 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Several important metrics have reversed course in the past month. Interest rates, especially mortgage rates, have declined (in the case of mortgages, by 1 full % from their peak. As many have pointed out, gas prices have fallen by about $1/gallon from their peak as well. That is putting more money into consumers’...

I subscribe to Prof. Heather Cox’s site. I pick the posts I believe might be interesting to AB readers. This one fits the spirit of the day. August 5, 2022, Letters from an American, Heather Cox Richardson On this day in 1861, President Abraham Lincoln signed into law a new tax law to help fund the United States government during the Civil War. Far more than writing a traditional revenue act to address the catastrophic war that had demonstrated...

July jobs report: in which an absolute positive blowout make me happily wrong; all pandemic job losses now recovered  –  by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this week, the short leading indicators for both jobs (real retail sales) and the unemployment rate (initial jobless claims) have each signaled that we should expect weaker monthly employment reports, with both fewer new jobs and a higher unemployment rate. I have been noting this ever...

Jobless claims continue their relentless climb  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 6,000 to 260,000 last week. More importantly, the 4 week average, which has been rising relentlessly, rose another 6,000 as well to 254,750, an 8 month high.  Continuing claims also rose 48,000 to 1,417,000, the highest since April: Initial claims have usually risen by 15% or more over its low, and turned higher YoY before a recession has...