Mosler Economics

So much for last week’s glimmer of hope: Back down to recession levels:

Up a bit, but until permits increase not much chance of home building increasing: Been going from bad to worse: Highlights Redbook’s sample is not pointing to any September improvement for core retail sales. Year-on-year same-store sales rose only 0.2 percent in the September 17 week, about in line with August and noticeably lower than July — two months when the government’s ex-auto ex-gas reading posted 0.1 percent monthly declines. Rates in this report don’t always match...

Notice the change of course after oil capital expenditures collapsed: http://www.marinelog.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=23076:bimco-shipbuilding-orders-at-20-year-low&Itemid=231

The slow motion train wreck that began in late 2014 with the collapse of oil capex continues unabated, with no sign of reversal that I can detect, and the annual rate of growth is consistent with prior recessions: Highlights After spending heavily in the second quarter, the consumer has stepped back so far in the third quarter. Retail sales, after inching up a revised 0.1 percent in July, fell 0.3 percent in August and do not just reflect expected weakness in auto sales....

Mortgage applications up nicely this week for a change. Always hoping for the best! ;)

So I count 3 or 4 increases and 3 or 4 decreases, so hard to say overall policy has changed, which is to keep the price just low enough to keep global investment to a minimum? Still very bad: This index went up with the shale boom and now down since the bust pulled the rug out from under oil capital expenditure:

Decline in Profits Slows By Stephen Grocer Sept 12 (WSJ) — Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report that revenue grew by 2.6% in the third quarter from the year-earlier period, according to FactSet. That would end a six-quarter period of sales contraction. Importantly, sales estimates for S&P 500 companies improved slightly since the third quarter began and companies began reporting second-quarter earnings. On June 30, analysts expected revenue to increase 2.5%,...

As previously discussed, this ‘nowcast’ is working its way lower as more data is released, much like it did last quarter. Still to come are weaker retail sales due to weakening car sales, weaker residential investment due to weakening housing permits, more inventory reductions due to weaker sales, and generally weaker consumption as employment growth continues to decelerate. And I also suspect the trade deficit to resume it’s climb as exports continue to weaken and the...

Interesting how it peaked as oil capex collapsed;) Highlights Information revenue fell 0.1 percent in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. Information revenue in the first quarter is revised 1 tenth higher to plus 1.4 percent. Year-on-year, information revenue rose 3.8 percent in the second quarter vs an unrevised 5.7 percent gain in the first quarter. This is the beginning of the ‘revisions’ previously discussed. The govt. estimates jobs created by net new...

Look at how many more new applications there used to be when rates were double where they are now: Just an fyi, his logic makes no sense to me whatsoever: Fed’s Williams says U.S. economy in good shape, wants rate hike (Reuters) It “makes sense to get back to a pace of gradual rate increases, preferably sooner rather than later,” San Francisco Fed President John Williams said. Targeting low inflation, as the Fed and many other central banks currently do, simply will not work...