Tag Archives: Uncategorized

Up a bit, but until permits increase not much chance of home building increasing: Been going from bad to worse: Highlights Redbook’s sample is not pointing to any September improvement for core retail sales. Year-on-year same-store sales rose only 0.2 percent in the September 17 week, about in line with August and noticeably lower than July — two months when the government’s ex-auto ex-gas reading posted 0.1 percent monthly declines. Rates in this report don’t always match...

In the USA there is an amusing discussion going on about the decline of the participation rate of (young) men. some people state that this might be caused by digital amusement. Dean Baker rightly points out that we should not restrict this discussion to American not yet dad’s. I want to make the case that we should not even restrict this discussion to the USA. Below three graphs (source: Eurostat) which show that: A) The average participation rate in Europe increased, even after 2008 (the...

from David Ruccio A constant refrain among mainstream economists and pundits since the crash of 2007-08 has been that, while the state of mainstream macroeconomics is poor, all is well within microeconomics. The problems within macroeconomics are, of course, well known: Mainstream macroeconomists didn’t predict the crash. They didn’t even include the possibility of such a crash within their theory or models. And they certainly didn’t know what to do once the crash occurred. What about...

Paul Romer has just published a devastating critique of DSGE (or, in his parlance, ‘Post Real’) macro models. He’s not the first important insider to write an article like this. Look here for Paul Krugman, ‘How did economists get it so wrong‘. Look here for Willem Buiter, ‘The unfortunate uselessness of most ‘state of the art’ academic monetary economics’. Look here for Charles Goodhart, ‘Whatever became of the monetary aggregates‘. And look here for the insider of insiders, Olivier...

Exhibit 10 from The other half of macroeconomics and the three stages of economic development Richard C. Koo 

Notice the change of course after oil capital expenditures collapsed: http://www.marinelog.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=23076:bimco-shipbuilding-orders-at-20-year-low&Itemid=231

from David Ruccio You’d think a Harvard economics professor would be able to do better than invoke horizontal equity as the sole argument for reducing the U.S. inheritance tax. But not Gregory Mankiw, who uses the silly parable of the Frugals and the Profligates to make his case for a low tax rate on the estates of the wealthiest 0.2 percent of Americans who actually owe any estate tax.* I’ll leave it to readers to judge whether or not it’s worth spending the time to compose a column on a...

The slow motion train wreck that began in late 2014 with the collapse of oil capex continues unabated, with no sign of reversal that I can detect, and the annual rate of growth is consistent with prior recessions: Highlights After spending heavily in the second quarter, the consumer has stepped back so far in the third quarter. Retail sales, after inching up a revised 0.1 percent in July, fell 0.3 percent in August and do not just reflect expected weakness in auto sales....

from Cherrie Bucknor and Dean Baker The 4.9 percent unemployment rate is getting close to most economists’ estimates of full employment. In fact, it is below many estimates from recent years and some current ones. Many policy types, including some at the Federal Reserve Board, take this as evidence that it’s necessary to raise interest rates in order to keep the unemployment rate from falling too low and triggering a round of spiraling inflation. The argument on the other side is first...

Mortgage applications up nicely this week for a change. Always hoping for the best! ;)