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Looks to me like it’s still decelerating? From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Continues Solid Growth in June; Signals Higher U.S. Business Activity Through End Of The YearRead more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#fcgmQuzJH31oFHbc.99 Wage ‘pressures’ indicators, after all this time, are finally moving up towards what would have been considered historically very low levels, so time to slam on the brakes? (Not that rate hikes are slamming on...

Still nothing happening here:More imports, fewer exports:

from Dean Baker Sorry folks, this isn’t Trump University, I don’t have the plan for you to get rich quick. But it is important for everyone to understand exactly why Bill Gates is very rich. It’s called “copyright protection.” If that sounds strange, imagine a world where everyone could make as many copies as they liked of Windows, Microsoft’s Office Suite and any other software at no cost. They would only have to send Bill Gates a thank you note, if they felt like it. Bill Gates is...

Source: ONS. According to the same ONS: Looking at the estimates by country of birth, between January to March 2015 and January to March 2016:UK born people working in the UK increased by 94,000 to 26.25 million. Non-UK born people working in the UK increased by 330,000 to 5.24 million Some months ago I was in London. The subway was populated by a mix of Asian looking super models and Polish construction workers. And by the occasional tourist, heading, with his son, 14, to a football...

from Dean Baker Paul Krugman devoted his column on Friday to a mild critique of the drive to take the United Kingdom out of the European Union. The reason the column was somewhat moderate in its criticisms of the desire to leave EU is that Krugman sympathizes with the complaints of many in the UK and elsewhere about the bureaucrats in Brussels being unaccountable to the public. This is of course right, but it is worth taking the issue here a step further. If we expect to hold people...

Not good. Note from the chart how growth has stalled, and housing is not likely to add as much to GDP this year as it did last year: HighlightsHousing starts are solid but not permits. Starts did slip 0.3 percent to a 1.164 million annualized rate in May but the trend is positive with the year-on-year gain at a very strong 9.5 percent. Permits, in contrast, popped 0.7 percent higher in the month to a 1.138 million rate but here the year-on-year rate remains deep in the...

from Peter Radford I have a book by James Meade published in 1975. It’s called “The Intelligent Radical’s Guide to Economic Policy”. Thumbing through it reveals how some things never change and yet, also, how the neoliberal suffocation of economic thinking and policy has allowed us to drift from a socially just economy. He ends his first paragraph thus: “The radical in politics is the citizen who places a rather high relative value upon Liberty and Equality in the catalogue of social...

Continues well below the Fed’s target: HighlightsWhatever pressure may be building in import & export prices or even producer prices, it has yet to give much of a boost to consumer prices which rose only 0.2 percent in May. Core prices, that is prices excluding food and energy, also came in at plus 0.2 percent.Year-on-year rates aren’t going anywhere, at only plus 1.0 percent for total prices and plus 2.2 percent core prices. Though the 2.2 percent rate does exceed the...

from Asad Zaman We are used to thinking that there is progress in knowledge. As we gain experience, the collective wisdom of mankind increases. The story of economics in the twentieth century provides the most amazing example of the opposite: How precious knowledge of vital importance for the welfare of humanity was gained and then lost. Many studies show that a meaningful job is the most important determinant of life satisfaction, and among the thing most desired by the general...

On the CFR blog Brad Setser has an interesting post about Spain, based upon the Spanish national accounts.. Summary: it is going better but (the volumes of)  domestic demand and jobs are still 10% below the 2007 level. And despite a relatively favorable development of (net) exports domestic demand seems to explain about everything, when it comes to employment. I have three points to add. The difference between the development of GDP and the development of domestic demand is, when it...