Tag Archives: US EConomics

November existing home sales: prices have unequivocally turned down  – by New Deal democrat Existing home sales do not have much actual economic impact, since the primary economic activity generated by housing is the construction. But they do help tell us a great deal about pricing. For the record, sales continued their relentless decline this year, down to 4.09 million on an annualized basis, down almost 1/3rd from their recent February...

by David Zetland (originally published at The one-handed economist) I’m not shy about criticizing the weakest elements of economics (there are many), so it’s sometimes a good idea to remind myself (and you!) of the strengths of economics, i.e., those characteristics that make it useful. Here’s an example based on a test-question I just asked: You are a baker facing higher energy (natural gas) prices. Higher prices result from (choose one...

November housing permits and starts: the biggest news is not in the headlines  – by New Deal democrat The report on housing construction for November was very much a tale of two very different trends – and the most important one will almost certainly be under-reported. Housing permits issued declined to 1.342 million annualized, the lowest number since June 2020, and before the pandemic the lowest since July 2019. The even more reliable...

Job growth beginning in Q2 looks to be substantially revised downward  – by New Deal democrat Last week the Philadelphia Fed published a working paper suggesting that in the second quarter of this year only 10,500 jobs were actually added, rather than the 1,047,000 as indicated by the monthly Establishment survey.  Here’s their graph: Here’s what you need to know about the QCEW (Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages):  The late...

Commenter Arne asked how we would transition from today’s healthcare system to a Single Payer format. I do not have the answer immediately at hand. I have to look for it. I do want to review what we have learned to date and stated on Angry Bear already. I do have a number of posts of the costs of healthcare. This one I like as it is simple and gets the point across on Drug Costs. I recently did a post of Pharma pricing which I will conclude with...

Weekly Indicators for December 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The coincident indicators, especially employment, are hanging on by the proverbial skin of their teeth. I don’t think they roll over until gas prices stop declining. In any event, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the moment on the status of the carnage, and bring me a little reward for the...

AB writer, commenter and Social Security expert, Dale Coberly provides a different take on whether “President Biden Should Direct the Social Security Administration to Stop Penalizing Marriage.” ~~~~~~~~ Nancy Altman wrote the following piece, which appeared in PROGRESS AMERICA, on December 16, 2022 as well as Common Dreams.  I thought it needed a response because I regard it as dangerous to Social Security.  I have inserted my responses...

The status of the coincident indicators  – by New Deal democrat In addition to real GDP, which is only updated quarterly and with a lag, the NBER has indicated that it relies upon four other datapoints in determining the onset month of a recession: payrolls, industrial production, real income less transfer payments, and real manufacturing, wholesale, and retail sales. The below shows all four, with the exception that, because real...

November real retail sales turn down, return to negative YoY  – by New Deal democrat Real retail sales is one of my favorite indicators for both the current economy and the jobs situation 3 to 6 months ahead. This morning nominal retail sales for November were reported down -0.6%, which only takes back about 1/2 of October’s strong +1.3% increase. Since consumer inflation rose +0.1% for the month, real retail sales decreased by -0.5%. Here...

In a recent post, Matt Yglesias argues for using fiscal policy – tax increases or benefits cuts – to control inflation, rather than relying on interest rate hikes.  There is certainly an argument to be made here, but his suggestions for reducing consumption seem less than ideal. Yglesias floats the idea of limiting Social Security inflation adjustments for retirees with higher incomes.  He also mentions capping deductions, and cutting Medicare...