Tag Archives: US EConomics

 – by New Deal democrat I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators, because more often than any other metric it coincides with the peaks and troughs of economic activity as determined by the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions. Unlike retail sales, the news this morning for October was not so good. While manufacturing production did increase +0.2% to a new post-pandemic high, overall production declined -0.1% for...

October producer prices: more evidence that supply chain pressures have eased  – by New Deal democrat Let me start this discussion of October’s producer price index by pointing to the NY Fed’s “Global Supply Chain Pressure Index” for the past 5 years through October: Before Trump’s tariff’s in 2018, most often this index was slightly below zero. It zoomed higher when the pandemic, and with the exception of a few months, stayed there until...

Some foreboding signs and portents from consumption and employment data  – by New Deal democrat I have a special post up at Seeking Alpha, looking at some very troubling signs from several of the high frequency indicators I track weekly as to consumption and employment. Click over and read the whole article, but here is a little taste: the below is what the YoY% change in the 20-day total of payroll tax withholding has been in has been as of...

“Weekly Indicators for November 7 – 11″ at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Although a few indicators are holding up, in the past month there has been almost continual deterioration in several employment and consumption metrics. These are particularly important for whether the consumer is pulling back, typically a signal that a recession is close to imminent. As usual, clicking over...

Real average hourly wages and real aggregate payrolls for October  – by New Deal democrat With yesterday’s report on October consumer prices, we can take up two of my favorite measures of how the working/middle class is doing – real average non-supervisory wages, and real aggregate payrolls. Real average wages for non-supervisory workers declined -0.1% for the month. They are -5% below their pandemic lockdown peak (which, recall, was...

October CPI report: total inflation increasing at 3.5% annual rate, core inflation minus shelter increasing at 2.8% annual rate in the past 4 months  – by New Deal democrat For a full year now I’ve been hammering the fact that the official CPI measure of housing inflation, “owners’ equivalent rent,” seriously lags actual house prices as measured by the most popular housing indexes. I said then, and I have reiterated almost every month since,...

Jobless claims: still holding steady  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose slightly, by 7,000, from one week ago to 225,000. The 4 week average declined -250 to 218,750. Continuing claims also rose slightly, by 6,000, to 1,493,000: This is right in the middle of where claims have been for the last 6 months. If anything, there might be a slight rising trend in the last month. The jobs market remains very tight. Aside from...

Deceleration and deterioration, but no downturn signaled  – by New Deal democrat No economic news of note today or tomorrow, except the (very late) Q3 Senior Loan Officers Report this afternoon, which will tell us about the state of credit, but is anticipated in much more timely – i.e., weekly – fashion by the Chicago Fed’s Financial Conditions Index. So let’s take a look at some noteworthy items from last Friday’s jobs report. As I...

Some Good Commentary this week. I would pay attention to the articles on Medicare Advantage. There has been a lot of complaints. If you are on Traditional Medicare, Be careful as they have been switching people over to Advantage Plans without asking. Sounds like the Fed believes people have too much cash in savings according to one article in “Economy.” Lots to read and catch up on in the world. Politics and Law “Regulators Move Against Two...

Have not done this in a while, maybe a long while. It was late 1996 and Participation Rate was up at 67%. It stayed up there till 2001 and Greenspan began a gradual decrease from in the Fed Rate from 6.0% down to 1.75%. I believe we had a small recession back then. Greenspan was trying to avoid it from becoming worse. 2001 was the last time the country saw Participation Rate at 67%.. The country has not seen a 67% Participation Rate since 2001...