Mosler Economics

Looks to me like it’s still decelerating? From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Continues Solid Growth in June; Signals Higher U.S. Business Activity Through End Of The YearRead more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#fcgmQuzJH31oFHbc.99 Wage ‘pressures’ indicators, after all this time, are finally moving up towards what would have been considered historically very low levels, so time to slam on the brakes? (Not that rate hikes are slamming on...

Still nothing happening here:More imports, fewer exports:

Not good. Note from the chart how growth has stalled, and housing is not likely to add as much to GDP this year as it did last year: HighlightsHousing starts are solid but not permits. Starts did slip 0.3 percent to a 1.164 million annualized rate in May but the trend is positive with the year-on-year gain at a very strong 9.5 percent. Permits, in contrast, popped 0.7 percent higher in the month to a 1.138 million rate but here the year-on-year rate remains deep in the...

Continues well below the Fed’s target: HighlightsWhatever pressure may be building in import & export prices or even producer prices, it has yet to give much of a boost to consumer prices which rose only 0.2 percent in May. Core prices, that is prices excluding food and energy, also came in at plus 0.2 percent.Year-on-year rates aren’t going anywhere, at only plus 1.0 percent for total prices and plus 2.2 percent core prices. Though the 2.2 percent rate does exceed the...

Purchase applications backed off but have been moving higher for several months, though still very depressed:A nice move up but as per the chart it’s hovering around 0:Worse than expected, and continues at recession levels, and note the decline in autos:HighlightsA steep drop in vehicle production pulled industrial production lower in May, down 0.4 percent. Vehicle production had been leading this report but fell 4.2 percent in the month excluding which the headline loss...

Saudi output hasn’t materially changed. The previous strategy was to set the price low enough for output to increase. So seems the new oil minister has changed course is now setting price as high as he thinks he can set it without triggering development of higher priced oil.Let me suggest this GDP ‘forecast’ is about as high as it gets before substantially falling back, as it did last quarter. This is because it is an account of what’s happened in April and May based on...

The charts of all the components look just as bad.And note the collapse after oil capex collapsed:HighlightsThe small business optimism index rose 0.2 points in May to 93.8, slightly extending April’s 1 point bounce back from 2-year lows but remaining well below the 42-year average of 98. Four of the 10 components of the index showed gains in May, two were unchanged and four declined. Expectations that the economy will improve posted the largest gain, rising 5 points but...

Rail Week Ending 04 June 2016: Rail Contraction Accelerates By Steven HansenJune 10 (Econintersect) — Week 22 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The improvement seen last week evaporated, and was likely due to the a holiday falling into different weeks between years. And this indicator: Cost cutting likewise reduces income:

The deceleration in jobs openings released yesterday leads the deceleration in employment. Downward job revisions also mean lower income estimates, so watch for personal income and savings to be revised down as well. And it all started decelerating after oil capex collapsed at the end of 2014. Job Openings Hit Record High, But Hiring Fades In JOLTS Survey By Ed CarsonJune 8 (IBD) — Job openings matched a record high in April but hiring activity sank to the lowest since last...